打造供给需求双中心对国际循环质量水平的影响

Research on the Impact of Creating Dual Centers of Supply and Demand on the Quality of International Circulation

中美贸易摩擦叠加新冠疫情,使得单纯追求运行效率的国际循环和全球价值链构建方式弊端尽显。基于经济合作与发展组织(OECD)投入产出数据和PageRank算法,利用供给中心度、需求中心度、出口国内增加值率、价值链国内生产长度等指标,分析打造世界供给中心、需求中心以及促进两者有机结合能否统筹安全和发展,全面提升国际循环质量水平。实证结果显示,打造世界供给中心和需求中心均能显著提升国际循环质量水平,而且两者有机结合后的提升作用存在互补性;与新兴经济体相比,发达经济体需求中心和供给中心单独对国际循环质量水平的提升作用有所减弱,两者有机结合后的促进作用并未显著变化;基于三类贸易活动设计的9种供给与需求有机结合方式中,供给侧复杂全球价值链活动与需求端复杂全球价值链活动结合是提升国际循环质量水平的最优方式。我国应面向国内国际有需求但未得到有效满足的领域打造全球供给中心,突破生产前沿约束,形成可持续的需求和国际竞争新优势;以牵引和催生优质供给为目标丰富需求层次、打造世界需求中心,进而促进供给需求双中心的有机结合,发挥两者在提升国际循环质量水平方面的互补性。

The trade friction between China and the United States combined with the pandemic of COVID-19 makes the construction of international circulation and GVCs,which simply pursue operational efficiency,have obvious disadvantages.Based on OECD input-output data and PageRank algorithm,the authors analyze whether building the world supply center,demand center and promoting the organic combination of them can comprehensively improve the quality of international circulation by using indicators such as the centrality in supply side,the centrality in demand side,domestic value added in export and the length of domestic production in the value chain.The empirical results show that:both the centrality in supply side and the centrality in demand side can significantly improve the quality of international circulation,and the promotion effects of the two organically combined are complementary;compared with emerging economies,the effect of demand centrality and supply centrality on the improvement of the quality of international circulation in developed economies is weakened,and the promotion effect of the combination of the two has no significant change;and among the 9 ways of organic combination of supply and demand based on three types of trade activities,the combination of complex GVCs activities on the supply side and demand side is the best way to improve the quality of international circulation.China should,first,build global supply center for domestic or international fields with demand that has not yet been met effectively,break through constraint in production frontier,and form the sustainable demand and new advantages in international competition;second,China should enrich demand levels and build world demand center by taking leading and stimulating high-quality supply as the target,promote the organic combination of supply and demand centrality,and give play to the role of the complementarity of them in promoting the quality of international circulation.