基于改进HK模型的社交用户观点演化预测研究

Research on Evolution Prediction of Social Users Opinion Based on the Improved HK Model

[目的/意义]准确预测舆情观点的演化态势,对化解舆情危机具有重要意义。[方法/过程]针对HK模型用于用户观点演化预测存在的不足,进行如下改进:首先,从和当前事件相似度高于阈值的历史博文中获取用户的初始观点值;其次,利用用户间交互行为以及关注关系计算亲密度,修订用户信任阈值;最后,融合用户全局影响力、用户间交互度以及观点接近度计算用户间的综合信任度,突出用户间观点影响权重的差异性。最终利用改进的HK模型实现对社交用户观点演化预测。[结果/结论]实验结果表明,改进的HK模型用于观点演化预测具有较低的MSE值和MAE值,可为舆情发展提供有效预测。

[Purpose/Significance]Accurate prediction of the evolution of public opinion is significance in resolving public opinion crises.[Method/Process]To solve the shortcomings of the existing HK model for predicting the evolution of social users'opinions,the following improvement were given:Firstly,the initial opinion values of users were obtained from historical blog posts with similarity to the current event above a threshold.Secondly,the user confidence threshold was revised by calculating the affinity using the interaction behavior between users and the following relationship.Then,the global influence of users,the interaction between users and the proximity of opinions were combined to calculate the comprehensive trust degree between users,highlighting the differences in the weight of opinion influence between users.Finally,the improved HK model was used to predict the evolution of social users'opinion.[Result/Conclusion]The experimental results show that the improved HK model for opinion evolution prediction has lower MSE and MAE values and can provide effective predictions for opinion development.