排放强度约束下的市际温室气体排放配额分配研究

Municipal Distribution of GHG Emission Allowance Under the Constraint of Emission Intensity

减缓气候变暖需要控制温室气体的排放规模,而温室气体排放配额关系着国家和社会的发展空间,影响到国民的生活水平。我国作为能源消费大国和温室气体排放大国,面临巨大的减排压力。为分解落实国家提出的2030年碳排放强度减排目标,以浙江省为例,采用多指标法,提出4项分配原则,选取6项分配指标,构建了市际温室气体排放配额分配模型,预测和分配浙江省2022-2030年温室气体排放配额,为较小尺度温室气体排放配额分配领域的研究提供一定参考。结果表明:采用不同测度指标对温室气体排放配额分配影响较大,使用多指标法进行分配能够尽可能兼顾到分配的更多层面,具备了更高的科学性和合理性,排放配额最多的地区为杭州市、宁波市和温州市,最少为舟山市,能耗强度和经济发展水平在温室气体排放配额分配中起关键作用。

The mitigation of climate warming needs to control the scale of GHG emissions,and the GHG emission quota is related to the development space of the country and society,and affects the living standard of the people.As a major energy consumer and GHG emitter,China faces enormous pressure to reduce emissions.To decompose and implement the national 2030 carbon emission intensity target,this paper took Zhejiang Province as an example,adopted the multi-index method,proposed four allocation principles,selected six allocation indicators,built an municipal GHG emission quota allocation model,predicted and allocated Zhejiang's GHG emission quota from 2022 to 2030,which provides some reference for the research on the allocation of GHG emission quotas on a smaller scale.The results showed that different measurement index has a great impact on the allocation of GHG emission quotas,and multi-index method can take into account more levels of allocation as much as possible,which is more scientific and rational.Hangzhou,Ningbo and Wenzhou had the most emission quotas,and Zhoushan City has the least emission quotas.Energy intensity and economic development level plays a key role in the allocation of GHG emission quotas.