干堆尾矿库稳定性影响因素的敏感性分析

Sensitivity Analysis of Stability Influencing Factors of Dry Heap Tailings Reservoir

为了探究干堆尾矿库的尾矿坝高和堆积尾粉土的物理参数对尾矿库稳定性的敏感性,基于MIDAS数值计算模型,模拟尾矿库在不同工况下的稳定性,并运用正交试验设计与灰色关联分析相结合的方法,分析尾矿库不同参数与安全系数之间的关联性。结果表明:尾矿库的子坝坝高、内摩擦角、弹性模量、黏聚力和渗透系数对尾矿库安全系数的关联程度分别为0.746、0.620、0.581、0.542和0.490,采用定量化方法直观地反映了各影响因素对干堆尾矿库安全系数的敏感程度。由此可知,影响尾矿库稳定性的因素主次顺序为子坝坝高>内摩擦角>弹性模量>黏聚力>渗透系数。

In order to explore the sensitivity of the tailings dam height and the physical parameters of accumulated tailings silt of dry tailings reservior to the factors affecting the stability of the tailings reservior,the sensitivity of influencing factors of tailings reservior to the factors affecting the stability of the tailings reservior was quantitatively and intuitively analyzed by the combination method of orthogonal design and grey correlation analysis.After analysis,five factors of dam height of tailings reservior,cohesion of tailing silt,internal friction angle,permeability coefficient and elastic modulus of tailings reservoir were determined as test factors.Five test factors were selected according to the dam height of tailings reservior and the physical parameters of tailing silt.The orthogonal design scheme was designed and the safety factor of the orthogonal test scheme was calculated by MIDAS numerical simulation software.Then the grey correlation analysis method was used to analyze the five different factors,and the correlation degree of five values of dam height,cohesion,internal friction angle,permeability coefficient and elastic modulus of tailings reservoir to the stability of tailings pond is analyzed.The analysis results show that the correlation degree of dam height,internal friction angle,elastic modulus,cohesion and permeability coefficient of tailings reservoir to the safety factor of tailings pond was 0.746,0.620,0.581,0.542 and 0.490 respectively.It can be concluded that the order of influence factors of the stability on tailings reservior stability is as follows:sub-dam height>internal friction angle>elastic modulus>cohesion>permeability coefficient.It can be seen that the most significant influence on the stability of tailing reservior is the dam height of tailing reservior,followed by the internal friction angle,elastic modulus and cohesion of tailing silt,while the permeability coefficient of tailing silt has the least significant influence on the stability of tailings reservior.Therefore,in the process of the design and daily management of tailings reservior,the balance between dam height and storage capacity of tailings pond should be considered.In the process of daily treatment,the flood discharge management of tailings reservior should be strengthened to reduce the erosion of water on the tailings silt.