基于ARIMA模型的我国人口数量的统计分析与预测

Statistical Analysis and Prediction of the Population of China based on ARIMA Model

运用描述性统计和时间序列分析法对我国人口数量及其相关指标,包括人口出生率、人口死亡率等指标进行统计分析和预测,分别得出ARIMA模型,并预测2017年至2022年指标数据,对比真实值显示模型效果较好。为国家制定相关人口政策提供依据。

In this paper,descriptive statistics and time series analysis were used to analyze and forecast the population of China and its related indicators,including birth rate,death rate and so on.The ARIMA models were obtained respectively,and the index data from 2017 to 2022 were predicted.Compared with the real value,the models showed better effect.The basis for the national formulation of relevant population policies was provided.