基于通径分析的货运碳排放多通道化影响研究

Research on the Multi-channel Impact ofFreight Carbon Emissions Based on Path Analysis

我国经济的快速发展产生了更大的货运需求,也带来货运碳排放量的持续增长。从分析货运碳排放变化的影响因素出发,寻找一个行之有效的货运行业可持续发展路径,对推动实现国家碳达峰、碳中和目标具有重要意义。考虑到不同运输方式对货运碳排放变化具有多通道化影响的特点,在科学测算货运碳排放量的基础上,建立通径分析模型,可以实现对不同运输方式对货运碳排放总量变化的直接和间接效应的定量分析,结果发现:公路和民航是货运碳排放的主要增长因子,它们对货运碳排放的直接增加效应较大,而它们的间接降低效应对它们整体的增加效应的缓冲作用有限;铁路和水路是货运碳排放的主要控制因子,尽管铁路对货运碳排放的直接降低效应弱于水路,但水路对货运碳排放的间接增加效应比铁路强很多,因此铁路整体的降低效应最强。

The rapid development of Chinas economy will produce greater demand for freight,and will also bring the continuous growth of freight carbon emissions.Starting from the analysis of the influencing factors of changes in freight carbon emissions,it is of great significance to find an effective sustainable development path for the freight industry to promote the realization of national carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.Considering the multi-channel influence of different modes of transportation on the change of freight carbon emissions,based on the scientific measurement of freight carbon emissions,a path analysis model can be established to quantitatively analyze the direct and indirect effects of different modes of transportation on the change of freight carbon emissions.The results show that:on the one hand,highways and civil aviation are the main growth factors of freight carbon emissions.They have a greater direct increase effect on freight carbon emissions,and their indirect reduction effect has a limited buffer effect on their overall increase effect.On the other hand,railway and waterway are the main control factors of freight carbon emissions.Although the direct reduction effect of railway on freight carbon emissions is weaker than that of waterway,the indirect increase effect of waterway on freight carbon emissions is much stronger than that of railway.Therefore,the overall reduction effect of the railway is the strongest.