复杂地质条件下沥青混凝土心墙坝风险识别方法

Risk identification method of asphalt concrete core wall dams under complicated geological conditions

针对复杂地质条件下沥青心墙坝风险识别问题,本文从“三高一深”复杂地质条件、沥青混凝土心墙和传统土石坝三个风险维度,系统建立沥青混凝土心墙坝风险指标体系。针对主客观信息融合不充分问题,本文采用三角模糊层次分析法(TFAHP)确定风险指标主观权重,通过指标重要性评价法(CRITIC)确定其客观权重,并利用博弈论法(GT)计算最优组合权重,构建基于TFAHP-CRITIC-GT组合赋权模型的沥青心墙坝风险智能识别方法。实例分析表明,新疆奴尔沥青心墙坝工程复杂地质条件风险指标权重占比0.516,是该工程的重要风险因素。综合考虑复杂地质条件风险对于准确识别沥青心墙坝风险因素具有重要工程意义,本文提出的指标体系及识别方法对于西部地区复杂地质条件大坝风险识别及评价研究具有推广价值。

To identify the risk of an asphalt concrete core wall dam under complicated geological conditions,this paper develops systematically a risk index system for such dams from three risk dimensions:three high and one deep complicated geological conditions,asphalt concrete core walls,and traditional earth-rock dams.Aimed at the insufficient fusion of subjective and objective information,this paper uses triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(TFAHP)to determine the subjective weight of risk indicators,criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(CRITIC)to determine the objective weight,and game theory(GT)to calculate the optimal combination weight.An intelligent risk identification method of asphalt core wall dams is constructed based on a TFAHP-CRITIC-GT combined weighting model.Case analysis shows that for an asphalt core wall dam,the risk index weight of its complicated geological conditions accounts for 0.52,which is the most important of its risk factors.Therefore,to identify the risk factors of such a dam accurately,it is of great significance to comprehensively consider its complicated geological conditions and the risk of its asphalt core wall.Our index system and identification method would be applicable to the risk identification and evaluation research of water dams under complicated geological conditions in West China.