下穿公路隧道近接地铁协同施工风险耦合研究

Study on Risk Coupling of Adjacent Subway Collaborative Construction of Underpass Highway Tunnel

为分析与度量协同施工系统风险的耦合作用,进一步揭示风险因素的作用路径及安全事故的演化机制,首先,给出了下穿公路隧道近接协同施工系统的风险因子,分析了风险耦合机理,构建了风险因子间的耦合关系。其次,基于N-K模型,建立了风险耦合信息交互计算方法,量化评估了风险耦合作用。以某公路隧道与邻接地铁工程协同施工典型项目为例,通过风险因素耦合概率统计分析,计算了多种因素风险耦合值,评估了公路隧道协同施工安全风险状态,给出了风险控制建议。结果表明:风险耦合导致风险值增大,耦合因素越多,风险值越大;风险耦合中同步施工与管理因素作用最为明显,参与耦合时,风险值较高,对施工安全影响显著。下穿公路隧道工程近接协同施工现场风险防控中,应从管控同步施工与管理等关键因素、避免多个风险因素的耦合、加强相邻深基坑开挖等施工重难点环节监控等方面着手,逐项减弱风险程度,减少耦合所涉及的风险类型。相比单一因素的风险评价,风险耦合模型及因素耦合分析可更准确地揭示风险事件的形成机理,以及风险因素的作用路径与影响程度,从而为施工安全风险管控提供更合理的方法。

In order to analyze and measure the coupling effect of collaborative construction system risk,and further reveal the action path of risk factors and the evolution mechanism of safety accidents,firstly,the risk factors of adjacent collaborative construction system of underpass highway tunnel are put forward,the risk coupling mechanism is analyzed,and the coupling relationship among risk factors is constructed.Second,based on the N-K model,the risk coupling information interaction calculation method is established to quantitatively evaluate the risk coupling effect.Taking a typical collaborative construction project of a highway tunnel and adjacent subway for an example,through the statistical analysis of risk factor coupling probability,the risk coupling values of various factors are calculated,the safety risk state of highway tunnel collaborative construction is evaluated,and the risk control suggestions are given.The result shows that(1)risk coupling leads to the increase of risk value,and the more coupling factors,the greater risk value;(2)in the risk coupling,the role of synchronous construction and management factors is the most obvious,when participating in the coupling,the risk value is high and has a significant impact on construction safety.In the risk prevention and control of the adjacent collaborative construction site of the underpass highway tunnel,it is supposed to start from the aspects of controlling key factors such as synchronous construction and management,avoiding the coupling of multiple risk factors,and strengthening the monitoring of key and difficult construction links such as the excavation of adjacent deep foundation pits,so as to reduce the risk degree and reduce the risk types involved in coupling in sequence.Compared with single factor risk assessment,risk coupling model and factor coupling analysis can more accurately reveal the formation mechanism of risk events,as well as the action path and influence degree of risk factors,thus providing a more reasonable method for construction safety risk control.