CMADS数据集在呼兰河流域的适用性评价

Applicability evaluation of CMADS dataset in Hulan River basin

【目的】探究中国大气同化数据集(CMADS)在呼兰河流域水文模拟的适用性。【方法】对CMADS与传统水文站降水、气温数据的精度及时空分布特征进行分析,构建CMADS与传统水文站2种气象数据驱动流域有、无水库控制水系情景下的SWAT模型,同时使用SUFI-2算法以月值实测断面径流数据为准进行模型参数的率定和验证,评价该数据集作为气象驱动数据的适用性及对传统水文站数据的可替代性。【结果】(1)2种气象数据具有较强的线性相关性和对应关系,且时空分布特征相似,年内变化趋势一致。(2)在无水库呼兰河干流水系,CMADS数据驱动的模型率定期R^(2)=0.92、NSE=0.91、PBIAS=18.53%,验证期R^(2)=0.94、NSE=0.96、PBIAS=10.51%;在有水库通肯河水系,模型在率定期R^(2)=0.89、NSE=0.82、PBIAS=12.79%,验证期模型R^(2)=0.93、NSE=0.86、PBIAS=12.03%,模拟结果均达到径流模拟评价标准。【结论】CMADS+SWAT模型比传统水文站在呼兰河流域径流模拟整体效果更佳、模拟精度和适用性更好,与实测值更为接近,可为缺少气象数据的研究区建立SWAT模型提供数据支撑。

【Objective】The purpose of this paper is to explore the applicability of China Meteorological Assimilation Datasets(CMADS)in hydrological simulation of Hulan River basin.【Method】The accuracy and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of precipitation and temperature data from CMADS and traditional hydrological stations was analyzed,SWAT models driven by two types of meteorological data:CMADS and traditional hydrological stations was constructed,and SUFI-2 algorithm was used to calibrate and validate model parameters based on monthly measured cross-sectional runoff data.The applicability of this dataset as meteorological driven data and its substitutability for traditional hydrological station data were evaluated.【Result】①The two types of meteorological data had strong linear correlation and corresponding relationships,and their spatiotemporal distribution characteristics were similar,with consistent trends within the year.②In the main stream of Hulan River without reservoir,the evaluation index under the CMADS data-driven model were the rate regularly period R^(2)=0.96,NSE=0.93,PBIAS=20.63%,and the validation period R^(2)=0.98,NSE=0.97,PBIAS=7.51%;In the Tongken River system with a reservoir,the model had a regular flow rate of R^(2)=0.88,NSE=0.80,and PBIAS=12.86%.During the validation period,the models had R^(2)=0.97,NSE=0.96,and PBIAS=12.05%,and the simulation results all meet the evaluation criteria for runoff simulation.【Conclusion】CMADS+SWAT model had better overall effect,simulation accuracy and applicability than traditional hydrological stations in runoff simulation of Hulan River basin,and was closer to the measured value,which can provide data support for establishing SWAT model in the study area lacking meteorological data.