出租车空载率时空特征及影响因素分析——以上海市为例

Analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of taxi empty-loading ratio:A case study of Shanghai

出租车是城市公共交通系统的重要组成之一,然而许多城市仍然存在大量出租车在城市道路中空驶的状况。基于上海市出租车GPS轨迹数据、POI数据和人口普查数据,采用地理加权回归(GWR)分析出租车司机行为因素和外部环境因素与出租车空载率的时空关系。结果表明,上海市出租车在工作日和非工作日的平均空载率分别为55.6%和59.0%,且其空载率在工作日和非工作日呈相似的空间分布特征,整体上呈现向市中心聚集的特征。模型分析结果表明,与GLM模型相比,工作日和非工作日的GWR模型的R2分别增加了32.0%和46.5%。出租车司机行为因素对出租车空载率的影响时空差异显著,具体表现为预期票价在工作日主要与出租车空载率呈正相关,而在非工作日主要呈负相关;等待策略和巡航策略与出租车空载率呈相反的空间影响关系。外部环境因素在大部分区域能够显著减少出租车空驶的时间。研究结果对降低出租车空载率,提高出租车运营效率,增加出租车司机收入具有重要意义。

Taxi is one of the important components of urban public transportation system,but many cities still have a large number of taxis driving in idle state on urban roads.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the factors that affect taxi empty-loading ratio and further improve its operational efficiency.Based on taxi GPS trajectory data,POI data,and census data in Shanghai,this paper first describes and statistically analyzes the taxi empty-loading ratio and its influencing factors within a scale of census area.Then,the variance inflation factor(VIF)and Moran's I test were used to explore the collinear relationship and spatial autocorrelation between taxi empty-loading ratio and its influencing factors,respectively.Finally,the geographically weighted regression(GWR)was used to analyze the spatiotemporal relationship between taxi driver behavior factors,external environmental factors and taxi empty-loading ratio.The result shows that the average taxi empty-loading ratios in Shanghai on workday and weekend are 55.6%and 59.0%,respectively.And its empty-loading ratio exhibits similar spatial distribution characteristics on workday and weekend,and overall shows a clustering towards the city center.The model analysis result indicates that compared with the GLM model,the R2 of GWR model for workday and weekend increased by 32.0%and 46.5%,respectively.The expected price,delivery speed,waiting strategy,cruise strategy,scenic spots density,and residential density have a significant impact on the taxi empty-loading ratio.There is a significant spatiotemporal difference in the impact of taxi driver behavior factors on taxi empty-loading ratio.Specifically,the expected price is mainly positively correlated with taxi empty-loading ratio on workday,and mainly negatively correlated on weekend.Besides,the waiting strategy and cruising strategy have an opposite spatial impact relationship with taxi empty-loading ratio.External environmental factors can significantly reduce the idle time of taxi in most areas.The research results are of great significance in reducing taxi empty-loading ratio,increasing the income of taxi drivers and improving the imbalance between taxis and passengers in terms of time and space.In the future,we can further explore the factors that affect the taxi empty-loading ratio in different cities and more detailed time scales,as well as the impact of weather and road properties on the taxi empty-loading ratio.