新型城镇化与乡村振兴耦合协调发展及影响因素——以新疆维吾尔自治区为例

Coupling and Coordinated Development and Inflencing Factors of New-type Urbanization and Rural Revitalization——A Case Study of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

基于新疆2012-2020年14个地州市的面板数据,构建了新型城镇化与乡村振兴的多维指标体系。运用熵值法、耦合协调模型以及灰色关联度模型,对二者进行了测算,并分析了两者间的耦合协调发展水平及影响因素。结果显示:研究期内,新疆新型城镇化与乡村振兴水平整体上呈上升态势,增长率分别是43.1%和52.2%;二者耦合协调度水平由0.383增长到0.465,整体比较偏低但发展潜力较大,并受乡村振兴影响较大;影响因素按作用强度从大到小依次是产业结构、经济发展、农业生产效率以及政府调控,灰色关联度均值分别是0.950、0.939、0.927和0.755,其中,政府调控对耦合协调度的影响程度大小具有显著的地区差异。

Based on the panel data of 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang from 2012 to 2020,this paper constructs a multi-dimensional index system for new urbanization and rural revitalization.The entropy method,coupling coordination model and grey correlation model were used to measure the two,and the development level and influencing factors of coupling coordination between the two were analyzed.The results showed that during the study period,the level of new-type urbanization and rural revitalization in Xinjiang showed an overall upward trend,with growth rates of 43.1% and 52.2%,respectively.The level of coupling coordination between the two increased from 0.383 to 0.465,which was relatively low overall,but the development potential was greater,and it was greatly affected by rural revitalization;the influencing factors were industrial structures,economic development,agricultural production efficiency and government regulation in order of intensity from large to small,and the average gray correlation degree was 0.950,0.939,0.927 and 0.755,respectively.Among them,the degree of influence of government regulation on coupling coordination has significant regional differences.