成渝地区双城经济圈公共服务与多维人口结构协调性研究

Study on the Coordination of Public Services and Multidimensional Demographics in the Twin-City Economic Circle of Chengdu-Chongqing Region

公共服务的供给应与不同人群的需求形成有效衔接。以成渝地区双城经济圈为研究区,通过构建公共服务与多维人口结构指标体系,采用灰色关联模型与耦合协调度模型研究了公共服务与不同类型人口结构关联程度以及耦合协调发展程度。结果发现:(1)公共服务与人口结构存在相互影响、相互制约的关系,卫生技术人员数与人口城镇化率关联度最高;(2)大部分地区人口结构与公共服务的相互作用程度在减弱,2010-2020年,成渝双中心城区人口年龄结构与公共服务耦合度下降45%以上;(3)人口结构与公共服务趋向良好同步发展,除人口年龄结构与公共服务耦合协调度下降外,其余系统间耦合协调度均呈现上升趋势。可见探究公共服务与不同类型人口结构的协调发展程度,对引导公共服务资源供给更适应人口的发展具有重要意义。

The provision of public services should be effectively linked to the needs of different population groups.This paper takes the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle as the research area,constructs the index system of public services and multi-dimensional population structure,and adopts the gray correlation model and the coupling coordination model to study the degree of correlation between public services and different types of population structure and the degree of coupling and coordinated development.The study found that(1)public services and population structure have mutual influence and mutual constraints;the number of health technicians has the highest correlation with the population urbanization rate;(2)the degree of interaction between population structure and public services is weakening in most areas,with the coupling of population age structure and public services in the Chengdu-Chongqing bi-central urban area declining by more than 45% between 2010 and 2020;(3)the demographic structure and public services tend to develop in parallel,except for the decline in the degree of coupling and coordination between the age structure of the population and public services;the degree of coupling and coordination between the rest of the systems shows an upward trend.It is important to explore the degree of coordinated development of public services and different types of population structure to guide the supply of public service resources to better adapt to the development of the population.