基于GIS的土地利用碳收支时空分异及碳平衡分区研究——以大连市为例

Spatial and Temporal Differentiation of Land Use Carbon Budget and Carbon Balance Zoning Based on GIS——Taking Dalian City as an Example

开展土地利用碳收支评估并构建碳平衡分区优化框架,对于制定适宜土地利用低碳发展策略、指导碳补偿额度流向及推动区域高质量发展具有重要意义。基于土地利用数据和社会经济数据,通过重心转移法、标准差椭圆法、基尼系数,生态承载系数等多种方法,探究了2010-2020年大连市各区县土地利用碳收支时空变化及其空间差异特征,并从生态及净碳排放量角度进行了碳平衡类型区划分。结果表明:(1)2010-2020年大连市土地利用碳排放量总体持续增长,由西南向东北方向递减,碳吸收量呈现北高南低的态势,碳源主要来源于建设用地上的能源消费,碳汇主要为林地;(2)2010-2020年大连市碳源与碳汇分异格局基本保持稳定,碳排放重心略向西南移动,碳吸收重心持续向东北方向移动;(3)2010-2020年大连市碳补偿率逐渐下降,基尼系数先下降后上升,大连市各区县的碳补偿率具有明显的空间差异,且空间差距先缩小后增大;(4)根据生态承载系数和净碳排放量,将研究区划分为绿色发展区、碳排放保持区、碳排放控制区、低碳优化区和高碳优化区,并在此基础上提出低碳优化策略及建议。

The assessment of land use carbon budget and the construction of a carbon balance zoning optimization framework are of great significance for formulating appropriate low-carbon development strategies for land use,guiding the flow of carbon compensation credits and promoting regional high-quality development.Based on land use data and socio-economic data,this paper explores the spatio-temporal changes and spatial differences of land use carbon budget in various districts and counties of Dalian City from 2010 to 2020 by using a variety of methods,such as shift of gravity,standard deviation ellipse,Gini coefficient,and ecological carrying coefficient.The carbon balance types are divided from the perspective of ecology and net carbon emissions.The results showed that:(1) From 2010 to 2020,the carbon emissions from land use in Dalian continued to increase,and gradually decreased from southwest to northeast.The carbon uptake showed a trend of higher in the north and lower in the south.The carbon source mainly came from energy consumption on construction land,and the carbon sink mainly came from forest land;(2) From 2010 to 2020,the differentiation pattern of carbon source and carbon sink in Dalian remained basically stable;the center of gravity of carbon emission moved slightly to the southwest,and the center of gravity of carbon absorption continued to move to the northeast;(3) From 2010 to 2020,the carbon offset rate of Dalian City gradually decreased,and the Gini coefficient showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing.The carbon offset rate of various districts and counties in Dalian City had obvious spatial differences,and the spatial gap narrowed first and then increased;(4) According to ecological carrying coefficient and net carbon emission,the study area was divided into green development area,carbon emission conservation area,carbon emission control area,low-carbon optimization area and high-carbon optimization area.On this basis,low-carbon optimization strategies and suggestions were proposed.