控制策略对流行病首达时间的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Control Strategy on the First Arrival Time of Epidemics

针对网络结构影响控制策略延缓流行病空间传播的问题,对复合种群网络中存在的双种群结构、枢纽结构、一维线性结构和路径叠加结构进行了研究,分析病患隔离策略和航空管制策略在延缓流行病首达时间上的效果,并通过美国航空网络数据进行仿真验证。研究结果表明,流行病爆发初期,及时采取病患隔离策略的控制效果比航空管制策略控制效果更好;流行病传播路径的长度是影响首达时间的重要因素;路径叠加结构几乎不影响航空管制策略的控制效果,但在很大程度上却会抑制病患隔离策略的控制效果。

Aiming at the problem of network structure influence on the control strategy on delaying the spatial spread of epidemic,the dual-population structure,hub structure,one-dimensional linear structure,and path superposition structure existing in the composite population network are studied,and the effects of patient isolation strategy and air traffic control strategy on delaying the first time of epidemic are analyzed,and the simulation verification is carried out through the American Airlines network.The results show that in the early stage of the outbreak,the control effect of timely patient isolation strategy is better than that of air traffic control strategy.The length of the epidemiological transmission structure is an important factor affecting the time of first arrival;The path overlay structure hardly affects the control effect of air traffic control strategy,but to a large extent,it inhibits the control effect of patient isolation strategy.