城市地下燃气管道泄漏事故致因因素系统分析

Systematic analysis on causative factors of gas pipelines leakage accidents in urban underground

为防控城市地下燃气管道泄漏事故,以复杂系统视角剖析城市地下燃气管道泄漏事故致因构成及其关联性,揭示系统失效机制。建立物理-事理-人理-环境(WSRH)分析框架,全面识别事故致因;运用灰数理论改进决策实验室法(DEMATEL)-解释结构模型(ISM),分析事故致因的关联关系,确定系统关键失效因素和关键失效路径。结果表明:城市地下燃气管道泄漏事故是直接致因、过渡致因和本质致因共同作用的结果,各因素间存在复杂的关联关系;系统关键失效致因有7个,形成关键失效路径8条,关键致因中最重要的是未严格落实安全教育培训;在管理时应优先处理关键致因,依据失效路径逐一优化,实现城市地下燃气管道系统安全运行。

To prevent gas pipeline leakage accidents in urban underground,the composition and correlation of accident causes were analyzed by this paper from the perspective of the complex system,and the system failure mechanism was revealed.The WSRH(Wuli-Shili-Renli-Huanjing)analysis framework was established by this paper to identify the causes of accidents.Based on the grey number theory,the DEMATEL-ISM method was improved by this paper to establish the multi-level recursive structure model,which was used for the analysis of accident-cause relationship and to determine the key factors and critical failure path.The results show that the leakage accident of urban underground gas pipeline is the result of direct cause,transitional cause and essential cause.There are complex correlations among these factors.There are 7 key causes of system breakdown,forming 8 critical failure paths.The most important of the key causes is the lack of strict implementation of safety education.In the management,priority should be the key cause.Then,according to the critical failure paths,the causes are optimized one by one to realize the safe operation of urban underground gas pipeline system.