浙江省道路货运行业碳交易配额分配研究

Allocation of Carbon Trading Quota for Road Freight Industry in Zhejiang Province

针对浙江省道路货运这一碳排放重点与减排难点,构建历史排放法、基准线法、历史强度法3种碳交易配额分配模型。采用584家企业数据进行实证分析。结果表明企业碳排放量呈增长趋势,强度呈波动下降趋势,不同子行业间强度差距大;综合运输与普通货物运输子行业是排放主体,碳排放总量占比超88%,强度处于较高水平,碳交易设计应重点对其关注;历史排放法下配额盈余、41%的企业配额不足,基准线法下配额短缺、87%的企业配额不足,历史强度法下配额盈余、34%的企业配额不足;碳交易初期更适宜采用历史强度法或更为宽松条件下的基准线法。

Aiming at the road freight transport industry in Zhejiang Province,which is the key carbon emission and the difficult carbon emission reduction industry,three carbon trading quota allocation models,namely historical emission method,baseline method and historical intensity method,were constructed.The data of 584 enterprises were used for empirical analysis.The results showed that:the carbon emissions of enterprises showed an increasing trend,the intensity of carbon emissions showed a fluctuating downward trend,and the intensity gap between different sub-industries was large;comprehensive transportation sub-industry and general cargo transportation sub-industry were the main emitters,accounting for over 88%of the total carbon emissions,and their carbon emission intensity were also at a high level,so carbon trading design should focus on them;under the historical emission method,the overall quota surplus and 41%of enterprises quota were insufficient;under the baseline method,the overall quota gap and 87%of enterprises quota were insufficient;under the historical intensity method,the overall quota surplus and 34%of enterprises quota were insufficient;in the initial stage of carbon trading design,it is more suitable to adopt the historical intensity method or the benchmark method under more relaxed conditions.