连续强对流天气下重污染扩散概率预报研究

Prediction of Heavy Pollution Diffusion under Continuous Strong Convective Weather

为了更好地掌握重污染在特定天气条件下的扩散规律,提出连续强对流天气下重污染扩散概率预报研究。在连续强对流天气下将污染划分为重度污染等级、中度污染等级和轻度污染等级;依据等级分类结果,分析重污染扩散概率预报具体要素,建立重污染扩散概率预报框架,预测在连续强对流天气下,不同污染等级的扩散概率,由此完成重污染扩散概率预报方法研究。实验结果表明,轻度污染类型变化情况明显比中度、重度污染类型更为显著,重污染扩散概率预报结果与实际变化情况相符,表明所提方法具有较高的预报精度。

In order to better grasp the diffusion law of heavy pollution under specific weather conditions,a study on the probability prediction of heavy pollution diffusion under continuous strong convective weather is proposed.Under continuous strong convective weather,pollution is divided into severe pollution level,moderate pollution level and light pollution level.According to the classification results,the specific elements of heavy pollution diffusion probability prediction are analyzed,and the framework of heavy pollution diffusion probability prediction is established to predict the diffusion probability of different pollution levels under continuous strong convective weather,thus completing the research on heavy pollution diffusion probability prediction method.The experimental results show that the change of light pollution types is obviously more significant than that of moderate and heavy pollution types.The prediction results of heavy pollution diffusion probability are consistent with the actual changes,indicating that the proposed method has high prediction accuracy.