山西晋中盆地紫花苜蓿生产对水分和气温的响应

The Response of Alfalfa Production in Jinzhong Basin,Shanxi Province to Water and Air Temperature

为验证农业生产系统模型(Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator, APSIM)—苜蓿模型对山西晋中盆地地区的适应性,本研究基于晋中市太谷区6个紫花苜蓿(Medicago sativa)品种的田间观测数据和同期气象资料对模型进行校准,并设置不同水分处理与降水/气温梯度进行情景模拟,分析各品种的生产力及适应性。结果表明:APSIM模拟各茬紫花苜蓿干草产量的决定系数(Correlation coefficient,R2)为0.82~0.98,均方根误差(Root mean square error,RMSE)为440~633 kg·hm^(-2),均一化均方根误差(Normalized root mean square error,NRMSE)为10.57%~14.98%,D指数(Index of agreement)为0.90~0.96,拟合度较高;情景模拟中,不同水分处理和降水梯度对紫花苜蓿产草量的效应极显著(P<0.01),但气温梯度间紫花苜蓿产草量的差异不显著;各紫花苜蓿品种的产量损失率(Yield lose rate, YLR)在不同温度、降水梯度和水分处理间差异显著(P<0.01),且雨养处理下YLR最高。虽未能充分发挥潜在产量,但总体而言“WL”系列品种在山西晋中盆地地区具有更好的生产适应性;APSIM模型对研究区紫花苜蓿生产有较好的模拟能力,对该地区的牧草种植管理具有一定指导意义。

This study aimed to verify the applicability of the Agricultural production System sIMulator(APSIM)alfalfa sub-model to the alfalfa production in Jinzhong Basin,Shanxi Province,by taking a basis of the field observation of six alfalfa(Medicago sativa)cultivars and the meteorological data in the region.The parameters of APSIM were calibrated and verified,then different water treatments and precipitation/temperature gradients were set up for scenario simulation to investigate the productivity and adaptability of each alfalfa cultivar.The results showed that the R 2(Correlation coefficient),RMSE(Root mean square error),NRMSE(Normalized root mean square error)and D(Index of agreement)index of hay yield were 0.82~0.98,440~633 kg·hm^(-2),10.57%~14.98% and 0.90~0.96,respectively.In the scenario simulation,the effects of water treatment and precipitation gradient on alfalfa hay yield were extremely significant(P<0.01).The YLR(Yield loss rate)of each alfalfa cultivar was significantly different between temperature,precipitation gradient and water treatment(P<0.01),among which the highest value of YLR occurred under only rain-fed(RF).Although the potential yield was not fully taken place,the“WL”series cultivars showed better production adaptability in the Jinzhong Basin of Shanxi Province than others did;APSIM model had a good capability to simulate the alfalfa productivity in study region,and had a certain guiding significance for the forage prodcution management in the area.