国家中心城市应急物流能力组态影响路径

Configuration impact path of emergency logistics capacity of national central cities

为探寻提高国家中心城市应急物流能力的路径,基于上海、北京、西安等18个国家中心城市的相关数据,应用模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA),从整体角度挖掘影响因素与结果之间的内在机制及互动关系。首先,从基础保障、组织管理、信息技术3个层面,选择运输能力、应急资源储备量、政府协调能力、应急资源筹集能力、信息共享能力、信息预警与监测能力等6个指标作为前因条件变量;在变量校准的基础上,先后进行必要性分析及条件组态的充分性分析以及稳健性检验。结果表明:没有一个条件的一致性为1,6个前因条件的一致性均小于0.9;6个前因条件共构成64条组态,影响国家中心城市强应急物流能力的组态路径共有5条,一致性均大于0.95,总体覆盖度为0.48;导致国家中心城市弱应急物流能力的组态路径共有3条,一致性均大于0.8,总体覆盖度为0.51。

In order to explore the path to improve the emergency logistics capability of national central cities,based on the relevant data of 18 national central cities such as Shanghai,Beijing and Xi'an,etc.,fsQCA method was applied to explore the internal mechanism and interaction between the influencing factors and the results from the overall perspective.Firstly,six indicators,including transportation capacity,emergency resource reserve,government coordination capacity,emergency resource mobilization capacity,information sharing capacity and information early warning and monitoring capacity,were selected as antecedent condition variables from the three levels of basic support,organization and management and information technology.On the basis of variable calibration,necessity analysis,adequacy analysis of conditional configuration and robustness testing were conducted successively.The results show that none of the conditions is consistent with 1,and the consistency of all 6 antecedent conditions is less than 0.9.There are a total of 64 configurations composed of 6 antecedent conditions,and there are 5 configuration paths that affect the strong emergency logistics capacity of national central cities,with the consistency greater than 0.95 and the overall coverage reaching 0.48.There are 3 configuration paths leading to the weak emergency logistics capability of the national central city,with the consistency greater than 0.8 and the overall coverage of 0.51.