群体性事件的成因要素分析——“黑天鹅”与“灰犀牛”之变

Contributing Factors of Mass Incident:Changes of “Black Swan” and “Grey Rhino”

群体性事件作为社会冲突最为剧烈的表现形式,其成因随着社会物质生活条件的变化而变化。针对群体性事件的研究曾是学界长期关注的热点,但近年来国内研究对此领域的关注度有所降低。为预防和化解群体性事件的发生,应结合现代风险社会特点,从微观角度探赜其发生的成因要素,这包括事件参与者的形成、共同理念与行动目标的确立、普遍情绪的产生、共同行为方式的选择、诱发因素、社会治理效果等。运用系统论的研究方法对各成因要素之间的演化过程和相互关系进行分析,群体性事件是一个社会矛盾积累并经由冲突各方不断采取不同策略组合进行博弈导致最后事件爆发的动态过程,“黑天鹅”与“灰犀牛”作为两种不同类型的风险比喻,虽然其发生概率大小不同,但我们均应谨慎待之。应围绕“事件参与者的形成”这一核心要素,从提高“社会治理效果”的向度继续深化相关研究,为群体性事件的治理实践提供学理支撑。

As the most violent form of social conflicts,the causes of mass incident change along with the social material living conditions.The research on mass incident had used to be a hot spot in the theoretical circle for a long time.However,after combing relevant literature,it is found that in recent years,the attention in this field has decreased in China.To prevent the occurrence of mass incident,we should consider the characteristics of modern risk society and explore the causal factors from a micro perspective including the formation of event participants,the establishment of common ideas and action goals,the generation of common emotions,the choice of common action,inducing factors,and the effect of social governance.By using the research method of system theory to analyze the evolution process and mutual relationship between the various factors,the mass incident is a dynamic process in which the social contradictions accumulate and the parties to the conflict constantly take different strategy combinations to play the game,resulting in the outbreak of the final event.The two types of risks of“Black Swan”and“Gray Rhino”are the image metaphors of the occurrence probability after the event.We should all be cautious about them.And we should focus on the core element of“the formation of event participants”and continue to deepen relevant research from the perspective of improving“the effects of social governance”,providing academic support for the governance practice of mass incidents.