新时代我国社会稳定风险评估研究评述——现状、问题与发展方向

Research Review of Social Stability Risk Assessmentin China in the New Era:Current Situation,Problems and Development Direction

在新时代,我国社会稳定风险评估已经成为一项重要的社会治理工具。它旨在确保重大决策、政策、改革措施、重大工程建设项目等在制定、实施或审批审核前,能够充分考虑其可能对社会稳定产生的影响,并在此基础上制定相应的风险应对策略和预案。经梳理考察近年来我国社会稳定风险评估研究领域的文献,发现已有的研究较少将理论与实践相结合,且缺少对利益相关者的关注,对评估指标体系和评估过程的研究显得不足;同时,目前我国社会稳定风险评估研究领域开始出现大数据运用、公共政策实施、风险复合性影响和制度建设的研究热点。今后我国社会稳定风险评估的研究重点应该放在风险调查、风险因素识别以及风险防范和应对措施等方面,同时应着力在效果评估、理论体系建设、国际经验和跨学科合作等方面推进我国社会稳定风险评估研究向纵深发展。

In the new era,social stability risk assessment in China has become an important social governance tool.It aims to ensure that major decisions,policies,reform measures,major engineering construction projects,etc.can fully involve the possible impacts on social stability before they are formulated,implemented or approved for review and approval.On this basis,corresponding risk response strategies and plans will be made accordingly.After reviewing the papers in the field of social stability risk assessment in China in recent years,it is found that the existing research rarely combines theory with practice,lacks attention to stakeholders,and lacks research on the evaluation index system and evaluation process.Therefore,this paper proposes that the application of big data,the implementation of public policy,the compound influence of risk and the construction of system are the current research hot spots.The research focuses on risk investigation,risk factor identification,risk prevention and response measures.At the same time,future research trends include effect evaluation,theoretical system construction,international experience and interdisciplinary cooperation,in order to provide reference for future research and practice.