间接税归宿收入再分配效应的时间变化趋势研究——基于减税降费期间投入产出价格模型的评估

Study on the Time Trend of the Income Redistribution Effect of Indirect Tax Incidence:Evaluation of Input-output Price Model Based on Tax Reduction and Fee Reduction Period

为保证财政政策效能提升,须准确评估间接税改革的受益群体分布与收入分配效应。基于2012—2020年CFPS微观数据,构建了投入产出税收价格模型,对间接税归宿收入再分配效应的时间变化趋势进行了实证研究,研究结果表明:增值税“扩围”、税目分立以及一般税率下调使得总体居民,尤其低收入群体间接税有效税率显著下降,提升了社会福利水平;间接税及分税种K指数为负值,在减税降费过程中,税制结构性调整减弱了其累退性;间接税具有逆向调节的收入再分配效应,但此阶段间接税总体效应已由-5.45%改善至-2.27%,横向公平与纵向公平均有所改善。因此,提出关注初次分配公平,继续实施留抵退税、优化间接税税率与税目等建议,以发挥间接税为主体的财政收入端制度优势。

To ensure the improvement of fiscal policy effectiveness,it is necessary to accurately evaluate the distribution of beneficiaries and income distribution effects of indirect tax reform.Based on the micro data of CFPS from 2012 to 2020,an input-output tax price model is constructed to study the temporal trend of the income redistribution effect of indirect tax incidence.The results show that the expansion of value-added tax,the separation of tax items,and the reduction of general tax rates have significantly reduced the effective tax burden of indirect taxes on overall residents,especially low-income groups,and improved the level of social welfare.The K index of indirect tax and tax distribution is negative,and during the process of tax reduction and fee reduction,the structural adjustment of the tax system weakens its regressiveness.Indirect taxation has a reverse regulated income redistribution effect,but the overall effect of indirect taxation has improved from-5.45%to-2.27%at this stage,with improvements in horizontal fairness and vertical fairness.Based on this,suggestions are proposed to pay attention to the fairness of initial distribution,continue to implement tax deductions and refunds,and optimize indirect tax rates and tax items,etc.to leverage the advantages of the fiscal revenue system with indirect tax as the main body.