摘要
针对PPP项目补偿受制于项目收益不确定问题,首先在收益确定假设下运用净现值方法确定项目特许权价值,以构建事前补偿的价值模型;然后基于项目收益不确定性,借鉴股票期权对风险转移方法,引入双边期权补偿的概念,并构建双边期权补偿的价值模型;最后对这两种补偿模型运用数值分析方法进行仿真比较研究。结果表明:当项目收益确定或不确定性较低时,PPP项目适合采取事前补偿;当项目收益不确定性较高时,PPP项目适合采取双边期权补偿。
In view of the problem that the compensation of PPP projects is subject to the uncertainty of project benefits,the net present value method is used to determine the value of the project concession under the assumption of revenue determination,so as to construct the value model of ex-ante compensation.Then,based on the uncertainty of project returns,the concept of bilateral option compensation is introduced by drawing on the risk transfer method of stock options,and the value model of bilateral option compensation is constructed.Finally,the two compensation models are simulated and compared by numerical analysis methods.The results show that when the project benefit is certain or the uncertainty is low,the PPP project is suitable for ex-ante compensation.When the uncertainty of project income is high,PPP projects are suitable for bilateral option compensation.
作者
吴孝灵
谭深
瞿萌
WU Xiaoling;TAN Shen;QU Meng(School of Accounting,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023,China)
出处
《建筑经济》
2024年第1期46-53,共8页
Construction Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(71571099,71971107,72171102)
国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(71732003)
江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(SJCX23_0645)。
关键词
PPP项目
事前补偿
期权补偿
价值模型
比较分析
PPP project
prior compensation
option compensation
value model
comparative analysis
