资本偏向型税收激励是否促进了工业智能化转型升级?——基于“机器换人”视角的分析

Does Capital-Oriented Tax Incentive Facilitate the Transformation and Upgrading of Industrial Intelligence?--From the Viewpoint of“Machine for Human”

本文以“营改增”试点政策作为准自然实验,基于2009—2016年中国A股工业上市公司数据,采用双重差分模型研究了“营改增”对工业智能化转型升级的影响。研究表明,“营改增”政策的实施效果显著依赖于上下游行业之间的投入产出关系,只有在较高行业关联度的企业内,才会显著促进智能化转型升级。进一步研究发现,“营改增”的智能化效应不仅仅表现为以机器人增加为标示的企业生产规模的简单扩展,更会引发企业内部劳动力结构的深层次变化。此外,“营改增”对竞争程度激烈的行业、非国有企业以及大型企业的激励作用更强。本文为研究工业智能化转型升级的驱动因素提供了新视角,也为政府持续优化税制改革、提高资源配置效率提供了有益参考。

Based on the data of China's A-share industrial listed companies from 20092016,this study takes the pilot policy of the“VAT Reform"as a quasi-natural experiment and employs the difference-in-differences approach to investigate the impact of the VAT Reform"on industrial intlligence transformation and upgrading.Results show that the promotion effect of the“VAT Reform"significantly depends on the input-output relationship between upstream and downstream industries.Only in those enterprises with a high degree of industrial correlation can the reform promote transformation and upgrading.Further analyses find that this policy effect is not only a simple expansion of the production scale of enterprises marked by an increase in the number of robots but also triggers a profound change in the internal labour structure of enterprises.In addition,the incentive effect of the VAT Reform"is more potent for industries with fierce competition,non-state-owned enterprises and large enterprises.This study provides a new perspective for studying the driving factors of industrial intelligence transformation and upgrading.Also,it gives conducive references for the government to optimise tax system reform and continuously improve resource allocation efficiency.