应用泊松耿贝尔分布估算海上极端风速

Estimation of extreme wind speed over the sea using Poisson-Gumbel distribution

采用泊松耿贝尔分布,基于中国气象局发布的《CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集》资料来估算海上极端风速,并以上川岛气象站多年实测资料通过概率评估来加以验证。结果表明,采用泊松耿贝尔分布可以得到较为保守的海上极值风速取值。对于海上的小面积区域的重现期风速估算,采用50 km半径区域进行评估,可以得到较为合理的估算结果,当评估区域较大时,则需考虑适当扩大评估半径。

Based on CMA-STI data set published by China Meteorological Administration,Poisson-Gumbel distribution was used to estimate the extreme wind speed at sea,and the data of shangchuandao meteorological station for more than 60 years were verified by probability evaluation.Results show that Poisson-Gumbel distribution can be used to obtain a more conservative value of extreme wind speed at sea.For the estimation of return period wind speed in a small area on the sea,a 50 km radius area can get a more reasonable estimation result.When the evaluation area is large,it is necessary to consider expanding the evaluation radius appropriately.