基于改进OPA模型的配电网综合停电风险评估方法

Integrated Outage Risk Assessment Method of Distribution Network Based on Improved OPA Model

配电网综合故障往往是由连锁故障导致,加大了配电网综合停电风险评估的难度,因此提出基于改进OPA模型的配电网综合停电风险评估方法。建立基于直流潮流的改进OPA模型,模拟配电网连锁故障,以提高配电网综合停电风险评估;以风险价值、条件风险价值、负荷损失期望值为综合风险评估指标,利用改进OPA模型模拟配电网连锁故障,计算评估指标值,根据评估指标值完成配电网综合停电风险评估。实验证明:该方法可有效评估配电网综合停电风险,风力会提升停电风险;在不同线路改造力度与初始负荷水平时,该方法均可有效评估配电网综合停电风险。

The comprehensive failure of distribution network is often caused by cascading failure,which increases the difficulty of comprehensive outage risk assessment of distribution network.Therefore,a comprehensive outage risk assessment method of distribution network based on improved OPA model is proposed.An improved OPA model based on DC power flow is established to simulate the cascading fault of distribution network,so as to improve the comprehensive outage risk assessment of distribution network;Taking value at risk,conditional value at risk and expected value of load loss as comprehensive risk assessment indicators,the improved OPA model is used to simulate the cascading fault simulation of distribution network,calculate the assessment indicator value,and complete the comprehensive outage risk assessment of distribution network according to the assessment indicator value.Experiments show that this method can effectively evaluate the comprehensive outage risk of distribution network,and the wind increases the outage risk.This method can effectively evaluate the comprehensive outage risk of distribution network under different line reconstruction efforts and initial load levels.