土地供给结构、农业转移人口与城乡经济波动

Land supply structure,agricultural transfer population and urban-rural business cycle in China

将异质性土地要素纳入到包含城乡二元结构的DSGE模型框架中,运用数值模拟方法刻画和阐释了地方政府的土地供给结构调整对农业转移人口以及城乡经济波动的影响路径。研究发现:农业转移人口以工业用地为主的非普通商品房居住模式是推动人口城镇化的重要助力,并且能够同时带来乡村地区产出水平的提升;城镇地区的供地指标向工业用途倾斜不利于农业转移人口的正向流入;针对乡区居民采取降低迁移成本与增加购房补贴的举措均能有效缓解住宅用地供给的收紧对人口城镇化产生的负面影响;地方政府采用逆房价周期的土地供给结构调整方式能够部分抵消土地供应减少给总产出以及乡区人口转移带来的负面效应。

The study incorporates heterogeneous land factors into the DSGE model including urban-rural dual structure,and portrays the impacts of local government's land supply restructuring on the agricultural migrant population as well as the urban-rural business cycle.The results indicate that:the non-general-housing settlement pattern of agricultural transfer population that mainly based on the industrial land is an important contributor to the population urbanization and can simultaneously lead to an increase of output in rural areas;local governments'land supply targets tilting towards industrial use will slow down the positive inflow of agricultural transfer population;reducing relocation costs and increasing house purchasing subsidies for rural residents are both effective in mitigating the negative impact on population urbanization caused by the tightening supply of residential land;adopting a land supply restructuring approach that counteracts the housing price could partially offset the negative effects of decreased land supply on total output as well as the population migrated from rural areas.