中国国家森林城市时空演变历程、特征及动因分析

Courses,characteristics and motivations of spatial and temporal evolution of national forest cities in China

【目的】分析219个国家森林城市时空演变的历程、特征和动因,并针对当前国家森林城市空间分布失衡提出建议,促进协同发展。【方法】从中国社会经济发展的宏观视域出发,借助历史研究法及文献分析法划分国家森林城市的发展阶段及建设观念;采用核密度估计、标准差椭圆及基尼系数分析国家森林城市的空间演变特征;采用叠置分析、矩阵分析及SPSS探索国家森林城市时空演变的影响因素。【结果】①宏观发展阶段。此阶段可归纳为基础探索—系统规范—快速发展等3个阶段,建设观念呈现“碎片化—一体化”“过度化—自然风”“绿起来—活起来”三大转变。②空间数量演变。建设覆盖面涵盖5个等级,数量分布与“胡焕庸线”高度吻合,即东多西少、南多北少,集聚热点由少至多。③空间态势演变。具有集聚性、方向性、联动性特征,呈现“点上突破—线上衔接—面上拓展”的联动发展模式。【结论】政策调控和观念升级为国家森林城市建设提供支持和引导;自然约束力和社会驱动力是创建高质量、低成本的国家森林城市的必要条件,决定了国家森林城市的数量分布和空间演变趋势;城市转变力紧扣群众需求为国家森林城市的提质升级提供了切入点。在动因分析基础上,提出促进国家森林城市均衡发展的对策建议。

[Objective]This study,with an analysis of the courses,characteristics,and motivations of the spatiotemporal evolution of 219 national forest cities,is aimed to countermeasures and suggestions for the current imbalance in the spatial distribution of national forest cities so as to promote the coordinated development of China’s ecological,economic,and social systems.[Method]First,development stages and construction concepts of national forest cities were determined from the macro perspective of China’s social and economic development with an analysis of the literature and the survey of history.Then,kernel density estimation,Gini coefficient,and standard deviation ellipse were employed to analyze the spatial evolution characteristics of national forest cities.At last,an exploration was conducted of the factors affecting the space-time evolution of national forest cities with the employment of overlay analysis,matrix analysis and SPSS.[Result](1)The macro development stage can be summarized into three stages,namely basic exploration,system standardization,and rapid development whereas the construction concepts were featured with three changes:from fragmentation to integration,from transition to natural wind and from green to live.(2)In terms of the evolution of spatial quantity,administrative regions covered five levels,the quantity distribution was highly consistent with the“Hu Huanyong Line”,and the number of gathering centers had increased.(3)The evolution of spatial situation was featured with agglomeration,directionality and linkage,displaying the linkage development mode of“breakthrough on the point,connection on the line and expansion on the whole”.[Conclusion]In terms of administrative power,the government provides support and guidance for the construction of national forest cities through policy regulation and concept upgrading;the natural binding force and social driving force determine whether the city has the necessary conditions to develop into a high-quality and low-cost national forest city,and determine the quantity distribution and spatial evolution trend of them whereas the urban transformation force provides a starting point for the upgrading of national forest cities in accordance with the needs of the masses.This study has also put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the balanced development of national forest cities on the basis of motivation analysis.