中国经济增速转变的驱动机理识别——基于外部不确定性、金融风险与核心通货膨胀三重视角

Identification of the Driving Mechanism of China's Economic Growth Changes:From the Perspectives of External Uncertainty,Financial Risk,and Core Inflation

近年来,经济增长的频繁大幅波动使得经济增长的点预测和趋势预测难度明显加大,这对预测经济增长走势提出了更高要求。文章跳出传统的点估计和趋势估计思维,综合运用TVP-FAVARDMA模型、非预期条件波动率高维因子模型等高维数据模型以及分位数回归、Q-VAR和在险分布模型全面预测了我国经济增长的分布状态,从风险管理视角重新审视中国经济增长的形态变异。研究显示,外部经济不确定性、金融状况指数、核心通货膨胀对预测我国经济增长分布具有重要意义,但对经济增长分布的预测能力具有明显的差异性和时变性。在不同历史时期下,三类因素均阶段性地扮演过经济增长的核心影响要素。外部经济不确定性主要影响了贸易摩擦时期的经济增长,金融因素主导了金融危机时期的经济下行,在新冠疫情时期,通货膨胀包含了预测经济增长的有效信息,这肯定了疫情冲击的实体经济效应。进一步研究发现,未来经济增长具备较强的稳定性和确定性,这为经济的有序复苏奠定了良好基础。

In recent years,the frequent and large fluctuations of economic growth make it more difficult to give a point or a trend estimation of economic growth,which puts forward higher requirements for economic growth forecasting.This paper breaks away from the traditional point estimation as well as trend estimation,and comprehensively uses the TVP-FAVAR-DMA model,the unexpected conditional volatility high-dimensional factor model,and other highdimensional data models,as well as quantile regression,Q-VAR model,and GaR model to describe the shape variation of China's economic growth.The results show that the financial condition index,external economic uncertainty,and core inflation are all of great significance for predicting the distribution of economic growth in China,but their forecasting abilities keep changing and deviate from each other.They all have played an important role in driving economic growth in different stages.Financial factors dominated the economic downward trend in the period of financial crisis,external uncertainty mainly affected the economic growth in the period of trade friction,and inflation in the period of COVID-19epidemic contains effective information to forecast economic growth,which confirms a real economy effect of epidemic shock.Nowadays,China's economy is under a new stage of recovery after the epidemic.External uncertainty,financial risk,as well as core inflation are all running relatively smoothly,and there are no prominent crisis events such as financial crisis,trade friction,etc.Therefore,whatever the condition is,the growth distribution at risk will be close to its selfdistribution.It proves that the recovery of China's economic growth is of great certainty,and it is likely to continue to recover steadily in future.As for the current trace of economic recovery,the real GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2023 was 4.9%,and the counterpart in the second quarter rose to 6.3%,showing a benign and moderate recovery trend.This indicates that China's economy will have a great probability to take this situation as a new start,and return back again to the medium-high speed growth plane.