信贷政策不确定性、资产配置与企业金融化

Credit Policy Uncertainty,Asset Allocation and Corporate Financialization

本文基于2005~2021年的报纸文本数据,通过文本分析法构建中国信贷政策不确定性月度指数,运用面板固定效应模型分析信贷政策不确定性对企业金融化的影响,并围绕企业金融化的动机问题进行了一系列异质性分析。研究结果显示:(1)信贷政策不确定性上升对企业金融化程度具有显著的抑制作用,但这并不意味着“脱实向虚”现象的缓解,信贷政策不确定性的上升会使企业更偏好“实体投资替代”类金融资产;(2)从企业异质性层面来看,信贷政策不确定性对企业金融化的抑制作用在金融发展程度较高地区以及非国有企业中尤为显著;(3)在企业金融化动机方面,融资约束较弱以及财务状况较好的企业对信贷政策不确定性的变动更为敏感,说明利润追逐仍是当前企业金融化的主要动机。本文的研究结果为缓解企业过度金融化问题、引导金融回归服务实体经济本源提供了有益的经验参考。

Based on newspaper text data from 2005 to 2021,this paper constructs a monthly index of credit policy uncertainty through text analysis,uses a panel fixed effects model to ana-lyze the impact of credit policy uncertainty on corporate financialization,and conducts a series of heterogeneity analyses on the motivation of corporate financialization.The results show that:①The increase in credit policy uncertainty has a significant dampening effect on firms'finan-cialization,but it does not mean the alleviation of the“de-realization”phenomenon,and the increase in credit policy uncertainty makes firms prefer“real investment substitution”.The rise in credit policy uncertainty will make firms prefer“real investment alternatives”to financial assets.②In terms of firm heterogeneity,the dampening effect of credit policy uncertainty on firms'financialization is particularly pronounced in regions with high financial development and in non-state owned enterprises.③In terms of corporate financialization motivation,firms with weaker financing constraints and better financial positions are more sensitive to changes in credit policy uncertainty,suggesting that profit-seeking is still the main motivation for finan-cialization in China.The findings of this paper provide useful empirical references for alleviating the problem of excessive financialization of corporates and guiding finance to return to its origin of serving the real economy.