老年全膝关节置换术后股骨假体周围骨折的危险因素及预测模型

Risk factors and prediction model for periprosthetic femoral fracture after total knee arthroplasty in the elderly

目的探讨老年全膝关节置换术(TKA)后股骨假体周围骨折(PFF)的危险因素并构建预测模型,为临床术后PFF的预防提供参考。方法回顾性分析2016年10月至2021年10月空军军医大学第一附属医院骨科收治的537例行TKA治疗的老年患者的临床资料。统计随访期间PFF的发生情况,收集临床资料。二元Logistic回归分析老年TKA后PFF的危险因素,基于危险因素构建老年TKA后PFF的预测模型。受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线和Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)检验预测模型的区分度和校准度。结果患者出院后随访12~72个月,中位时间47个月。随访期间31例(5.77%)患者发生PFF。年龄、骨质疏松、帕金森病、股骨前切迹(AFN)是老年TKA后PFF的危险因素(P<0.05),假体十字固位、骨水泥固定是保护因素(P<0.05)。H-L检验结果显示,老年TKA后PFF的风险预测模型具有较好的校准度(P>0.05);ROC曲线分析显示,老年TKA后PFF的风险预测模型具有较高的区分度(曲线下面积为0.858,95%CI:0.826~0.887),敏感度为83.87%,特异度为88.34%。结论老年TKA后PFF的发生风险较大,应针对高危因素进行防范,根据高危因素建立的预测模型具有较好的预测效能。

Objective To investigate the risk factors of periprosthetic femoral fracture(PFF)after total knee arthroplasty(TKA)in the elderly and to construct a predictive model for the prevention of PFF after clinical operation.Methods The clinical data of 537 elderly patients who underwent TKA in the orthopedic department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Air Medical University from October 2016 to October 2021 were retrospectively analyzed.The occurrence of PFF during the follow-up period was statistically analyzed and the clinical data were collected.Binary Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of PFF after TKA in the elderly,and a predictive model of PFF after TKA in the elderly was constructed based on the risk factors.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)were used to test the discrimination and calibration of prediction model.Results The patients were followed up for 12 to 72 months after discharge,with a median time of 47 months.During the follow-up period,31 patients(5.77%)developed PFF.Age,osteoporosis,Parkinson's disease and anterior femoral notch(AFN)were the risk factors for PFF after TKA in the elderly(P<0.05),and cross fixation of prosthesis and bone cement fixation were the protective factors(P<0.05).The results of H-L test showed that the risk prediction model of PFF after TKA in the elderly had good calibration(P>0.05).ROC curve analysis showed that the risk prediction model of PFF after TKA in the elderly has high discrimination(area under the curve was 0.858,95%CI:0.826 to 0.887),the sensitivity was 83.87%,the specificity was 88.34%.Conclusion The risk of PFF after TKA in the elderly is high,and prevention should be carried out according to the high risk factors.The prediction model constructed based on the high risk factors has good prediction efficiency.