房产税、信贷政策与房价波动

Property Tax,Credit Policy and House Price Fluctuations

本文将房地产市场调控的三种货币政策和财政政策纳入统一分析框架,定量分析了房产税、抵押贷款利率与限贷政策的调控力度及其异同和形成机理,提供了一个可借鉴的简洁研究范式。局部均衡和一般均衡模型分析都表明:第一,价格型调控政策,即房产税和抵押贷款利率政策,不论从调控力度还是从长短期调控效果来看都非常类似,均能有效抑制房价非理性上涨;房产税调控效果最强,贷款利率政策次之;第二,数量型政策,即抵押贷款政策的调控力度最弱,且其在短期和长期内的调控效果完全相反。“限贷”在短期能抑制房价上涨,但长期反而助推房价上涨,这部分解释了为什么会发生“越调越涨”的窘境。因此在构建房地产市场调控长效机制时,要兼顾政策工具的调控力度、短期和长期调控效果,灵活采取不同的或组合政策工具,才能有效化解房地产市场风险,实现“房住不炒”的双重目标。

This paper incorporates three monetary and fiscal policies of real estate market regulation into a unified analytical framework,and quantitatively analyzes the regulatory effectiveness,similarities and differences,and the formation mechanism of property tax,mortgage interest rate and loan-to-value(mortgage)policies to provide a concise analytical paradigm for the theoretical study of real estate macro-control policies.The analysis of local equilibrium and general equilibrium models shows that:first,the price-based regulation policies,i.e.,property tax and mortgage interest rate policies,are very similar in terms of regulation strength,as well as in terms of long-and short-term regulation effects,both of which can effectively suppress the irrational rise of house prices,with property tax having the strongest regulation effect and mortgage interest rate policy the second;second,the quantity-based policies,i.e.,mortgage policies,have the weakest regulation strength,and the regulation effects in the short and long term are completely opposite.Mortgage policies can stabilize the housing price in short run but push the price upward in the long run.This partly explains why the dilemma of"the more restrictive policies,the more rising in housing price"has occurred.Therefore,when building a perfect real-estate market macro-control mechanism,we should take into account the short-term and long-term regulatory effects and strength of policy tools,utilize different or combination of policy tools flexibly in order to effectively address the risks of the real estate market and achieve the dual goal of"housing is for living need and not for speculation"