时空视角下国土空间生态修复与城镇化发展效应的耦合联动研究

Research on coupled linkage between territory ecological restoration and urbanization effects from the perspective of spatial-temporal

基于对国土空间生态修复和城镇化发展效应的内涵剖析,构建评价指标体系,并运用模糊评价、耦合协调、面板向量自回归和空间杜宾模型测度了2005—2020年31个省区市国土空间生态修复与城镇化发展效应的交互影响和空间联动效应。结果表明:①国土空间生态修复指数由0.179增至0.740,表现为“中部>东部>东北>西部”;城镇化效应指数由0.134增至0.833,表现为“东部>中部>东北>西部”;②耦合协调度由0.394增至0.886,从轻度失调向良好耦合协调转变,表现为“中部>东部>东北>西部”;③国土空间生态修复对自身和城镇化发展效应的解释力分别为60.9%和15.6%,城镇化效应对自身和国土空间生态修复的解释力分别为84.4%和39.1%;④国土空间生态修复的空间回归系数为0.148,城镇化发展对国土空间生态修复的直接效应为0.221%,空间溢出效应为0.071%;城镇化发展效应对国土空间生态修复的解释力更大,二者之间存在良好的时序耦合协调性;城镇化发展效应对国土空间生态修复具有显著的正向空间溢出效应,二者之间具有不对等的空间联动发展性。

Based on the analysis of the connotation of the effect of territory ecological restoration and urbanization development,this paper constructed the evaluation index system,and used fuzzy evaluation,coupling coordination,panel vector autoregression and spatial Durbin model to measure the interaction and spatial linkage effects of ecological restoration of national land space and urbanization development effect in 31 provinces from 2005 to 2020.The results showed that:①The territory ecological restoration index increased from 0.179 to 0.740,showing“Central>East>Northeast>West”.The urbanization effect index increased from 0.134 to 0.833,showing“East>Central>Northeast>West”.②The coupling coordination degree increased from 0.394 to 0.886,and changed from mild maladjustment to good coupling coordination,showing“Central>Eastern>Northeast>Western”.③The explanatory power of national territory space ecological restoration to its own and urbanization development effects was 60.9%and 15.6%respectively,and the explanatory power of urbanization effect to its own and national territory space ecological restoration was 84.4%and 39.1%respectively.④The spatial regression coefficient of territory ecological restoration was 0.148,the direct effect of urbanization on territory ecological restoration was 0.221%,and the spatial spillover effect was 0.071%.The effect of urbanization development had a greater explanatory power to the territory ecological restoration,and there was a good time series coupling coordination between them.The development effect of urbanization had a significant positive spatial spillover effect on the territory ecological restoration,and there was an unequal role and a spatial linkage development of reaction between them.