广西—东盟国家贸易格局的时空演变及其影响因素研究

Research on the spatio-temporal evolution of the trade pattern between Guangxi-ASEAN countries and its influencing factors

广西作为中国—东盟自由贸易区的前沿阵地,研究广西与东盟国家的贸易格局演变及其影响因素具有重大现实意义。基于2002—2019年广西与东盟国家的双边贸易数据,首先结合HM指数和ArcGIS可视化分析研究了广西与东盟国家贸易格局的时空演变,然后通过构建引力模型开展实证研究。结果显示:广西对东盟多数国家的出口依赖程度呈不断加深的趋势,但相互依赖程度存在明显差异。其中,广西对越南的出口依赖程度明显增加,越南已成为广西最重要的贸易伙伴,而对泰国和菲律宾的出口依赖程度则明显下降。此外,广西与东盟各国的人均GDP、人口规模、广西对东盟国家的外商直接投资额、相互往来的航空及港口航线、领土接壤同双边贸易额呈显著正相关,而广西与东盟各国首都之间的地理距离同双边贸易额呈显著负相关。

As the forefront of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA),studying the evolution of the trade pattern between Guangxi and ASEAN countries and its influencing factors is of great practical significance.Based on bilateral trade data between Guangxi and ASEAN countries from 2002 to 2019,this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of the trade pattern between Guangxi and ASEAN countries using HM index and ArcGIS visualization software,and then an empirical study was conducted by constructing a gravity model and using Stata software.The results showed that:Guangxi′s export dependence on most ASEAN countries had gradually deepened,but there were significant differences in the degree of interdependence.Among them,Guangxi′s export dependence on Vietnam had significantly increased,while its export dependence on Thailand and the Philippines had significantly decreased.Vietnam had become Guangxi′s most important trading partner.In addition,the per capita GDP,population size,Guangxi′s foreign direct investment in ASEAN countries,air routes,port routes,and territorial border between Guangxi and ASEAN countries were significantly positively correlated with their bilateral trade amount,while the geographical distance between Guangxi and the capitals of ASEAN countries was significantly negatively correlated with their bilateral trade amount.