黄河三角洲县域经济韧性时空演变及障碍度研究

Research on the spatial-temporal evolution and obstacle degree of county economic resilience in the Yellow River Delta

识别黄河三角洲县域的经济韧性水平及其障碍性因素,有利于推动县域高质量发展。以黄河三角洲县域为研究对象,运用DPSIR模型与双向评价指标体系法构建经济韧性动态双向评价指标体系,通过熵权法、Dagum基尼系数、探索性空间数据分析法、障碍度模型探究2011—2020年黄河三角洲县域经济韧性的时空分异特征与障碍因素。结果表明:①2011—2017年县域整体的经济韧性呈现波动上升趋势,2018—2020年呈现先下降后上升趋势;②各县域单元的经济韧性呈上升趋势,经济韧性差距逐渐扩大,韧性得分排名变化不明显;③经济韧性空间分布没有显著差异,经济韧性从随机分布转向空间集聚,西北部韧性水平整体低于东南部韧性水平,各时点韧性均值主要处于中等韧性;④经济韧性基尼系数均在0.2以下,区域内经济状况高度平均;经济韧性差异的来源,首先是组间差异,其次是超变密度差异,最后是组内差异;⑤各组经济韧性的主要障碍因子相似,集中在资源水平、贫富差距、技术进步、消费潜力准则层。

The identification of economic resilience levels and its obstacle factors in the counties of the Yellow River Delta was essential for promoting high-quality county development.Taking the Yellow River Delta county as the research object,this paper constructed the dynamic two-way evaluation index system of county economic resilience in this area by DPSIR model and two-way evaluation index system method,and analyzed the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and obstacle factors of economic resilience from 2011 to 2020 through the entropy method,Dagum Gini coefficient,ESDA and obstacle degree model.The results showed that:①The economic resilience of the county as a whole showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2011 to 2017,followed by a decline and subsequent upward trend from 2018 to 2020.②The economic resilience of each county unit exhibited a consistent upward trend,accompanied by a gradual widening of the gap between their levels of economic resilience.However,there was no significant alteration in the ranking order of economic resilience.③There was no significant disparity in the spatial distribution of economic resilience,with a transition observed from random dispersion to spatial concentration,and the resilience level in the northwest generally exhibited lower values compared to that in the southeast,with a predominant medium mean value observed at each time point.④The Gini coefficients of economic resilience were all below 0.2,indicated a high level of average economic conditions in this region.The sources of variation in economic resilience were firstly the inter-regional,followed by the hyper-variable density,and finally the intra-regional.⑤The main obstacle factors of each group were similar,primarily concentrated within the criterion layer of resources level,wealth disparity,technological advancement and consumption potential.