2023年蔬菜市场形势分析和2024年展望

Vegetable Market Analysis in 2023 and Outlook for 2024

蔬菜是重要“菜篮子”农产品之一。2023年,蔬菜市场价格总体基本符合常年季节性波动规律,偏高位运行,夏季菜价跌幅不明显。受多次寒潮和补偿性上涨因素影响,预计冬春菜价上行较往年明显,春节后可能保持高位运行一段时间。考虑到2023年菜价整体偏高,在田面积同比增加,大白菜、萝卜等耐贮蔬菜供大于求,北方设施蔬菜和“南菜北运”蔬菜上市稳健,部分产区寒潮受灾但恢复供应的可能性大,预计2024年春季蔬菜供应总体有保障。总体看,在蔬菜供给总量宽松、结构调优的背景下,建议加快发展特色蔬菜,优化布局设施蔬菜,推进绿色转型,稳定供应链,升级产业链,充分发挥蔬菜产业促进乡村振兴的重要作用。

Vegetable is an important part of the‘Vegetable Basket Project’.In 2023,the market price of vegetables basically conformed to the regularity of seasonal fluctuations throughout the year,with running at a high level,and the decline in vegetable prices in summer was not obvious as usual years.Affected by several cold-air outbreaks and compensatory rising factors,it is expected that the price of vegetables in winter and spring will rise significantly compared with previous years,and may remain high for a period of time after the Spring Festival.Considering that the overall price of vegetables in 2023 is high,the area in the field has increased than 2022,the supply of shelf-stable vegetables such as cabbage and radish exceeds demand,the vegetables in the northern facilities and the vegetables of‘southern vegetables-northern transportation’are on the market steadily,and the cold-air outbreak in some producing areas has been affected but the possibility of resuming supply is high,and it is expected that the supply of vegetables in the spring of 2024 will be generally guaranteed.Overall,in the context of loose total vegetable supply and optimal structure,it is recommended to accelerate the development of characteristic vegetables,optimize the layout of facility vegetables,promote green transformation,stabilize the supply chain,upgrade the industrial chain,and give full play to the important role of the vegetable industry in promoting rural revitalization.