面向山区铁路工程物流基地选址的分布鲁棒优化模型

Distributionally Robust Optimization Model for Logistics Facility Location in Mountainous Railway Projects

山区铁路传统工程建设运输物流基地选址模型较少将未来可能需求纳入考量范畴,忽视了此类临时工程在社会效益方面的可持续发展潜力。针对此问题,在传统工程建设运输物流基地选址模型考虑影响因素及假设基础上,加入永临结合决策变量,构建同时考虑未来社会需求分布的不确定性的工程选址模型。以工程地质条件、建设施工成本、道路情况等多个因素作为评价指标,采用预测未来社会需求并引入波动变量构建非精确机会约束的方式,提出适用于永临结合模式设施选址的“多面体-DRO”二阶段分布鲁棒模型。研究结果表明:服务水平是选址决策的主要影响因素;对于高海拔施工点,选择附近的高海拔设施更加可靠;为尽可能服务高海拔地区,永久设施点更倾向于在高海拔地区修建。建立的模型能够有效抵抗不确定性带来的代价,从而避免决策失误,在山区铁路工程永临结合设施修建方面有着重要理论价值和实际指导意义。

Railroad projects in mountainous areas of traditional models in selecting the location of transportation and logistics bases for project construction seldom consider potential future needs,ignoring the sustainable development potential of such temporary projects in terms of social benefits.The potential for sustainable development of such temporary projects in terms of social benefits is neglected.To address this issue,on the basis of considering the influencing factors and assumptions in the traditional models of selecting project construction transportation and logistics bases,this paper added the decision-making variables for the integration of temporary and permanent facilities to realize the construction of the project location model that considers the uncertainty of the future distribution of social demand at the same time.Specifically,by selecting several factors such as project geological conditions,construction costs,railroad conditions as evaluation indexes,and by predicting future social demand and introducing fluctuating variables to construct imprecise opportunity constraints,a“polyhedron-DRO(distributionally robust optimization)”two-stage model was proposed for the siting of facilities in the mode of integration of temporary and permanent facilities..The results of the study show that the service level is the main influencing factor in the site selection decisions.For high-elevation construction sites,the selection of nearby high-elevation facilities is more reliable.In order to serve high elevation areas as much as possible,the construction of permanent facility sites in high elevation areas is preferable.The model established in this paper can effectively resist the cost of uncertainty,so as to avoid decision-making mistakes of decision-makers,and provides important theoretical value and practical guidance significance in the construction of permanent and temporary combined facilities for railroad projects in mountainous areas.