中国信息服务业时空格局演化及影响因素分析

Spatial-Temporal Pattern Evolution of China′s Information Service Industry and Its Influencing Factors

数字经济是继农业经济、工业经济之后的主要经济形态,信息服务业是数字经济的关键部门。该文基于城市信息服务业企业工商注册数据,运用标准差椭圆和空间计量模型研究2000—2019年我国信息服务业时空格局及影响因素。结果发现:①研究期内我国信息服务业新创企业数呈“增加—减少—增加趋势”,主要集聚于城市群与省会城市,中心外围差异显著,且呈现明显的东高西低格局;②长三角城市群的信息服务业发展规模最大,珠三角城市群活力领先,京津冀城市群的规模和活力均呈下滑趋势,信息服务业整体呈向西南移动趋势;③创新水平、金融资本、人力资本、信息基础设施、人口规模与经济规模对信息服务业发展有显著的正向影响,且多具有显著的空间溢出效应与空间异质性,在东部地区作用最显著,而交通基础设施与产业结构对其影响并不稳健。研究结论能为数字经济背景下信息服务业政策制定提供启示。

Digital economy is the main economic form after agricultural economy and industrial economy,and information service industry is the key department of digital economy.Based on the business registration data of information service enterprises,this paper adopted the standard deviation ellipse and spatial econometric model to study the spatial and temporal pattern and influencing factors of information service industry in China from 2000 to 2019.It is found as follows.①The number of new ventures in China′s information service industry showed a trend of increasing first,then decreasing and finally increasing,mainly concentrated in key urbanized areas,with significant differences between the center area and the periphery,and showing an obvious pattern of high in the east and low in the west.②The development scale of the information service industry in the Yangtze River Delta is largest,the vitality of the information service industry in the Pearl River Delta is leading,and the scale and vitality of the information service industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are declining.China′s information service industry shows a trend of moving to the southwest.③Innovation level,financial capital,human capital,information infrastructure,population size and economic scale have a significant positive impact on information service industry development,while the impact of transportation infrastructure and industrial structure are not stable.Most of these factors have significant spatial spillover effect and spatial heterogeneity,and play the most significant role in the eastern region.The relevant research conclusions can provide enlightenment for the policy-making of information service industry in the context of digital economy.