中国市域经济发展质量水平的格局演变及其驱动因子

Spatiotemporal Pattern and Driving Factors of Economic Development Quality at the Municipal Level in China

利用纵横向拉开档次法,构建了由38个具体指标构成的市域经济发展质量水平评价指标体系,利用Dagum基尼系数、传统马尔可夫链和空间马尔可夫链、地理探测器等方法,研究了2000—2019年中国地级及以上市域经济发展质量的格局演变及其驱动因子。结果表明:(1)2000—2019年全国市域经济发展质量不断提升,八大经济区间呈现“东部沿海>南部沿海>北部沿海>长江中游>黄河中游>东北>西南>西北”态势,市域经济发展质量在空间分布上呈显著的空间集聚性;(2)全国经济发展质量高的市域在“东西”“南北”间数量差距明显,并呈现由长三角、珠三角和山东半岛城市群向四周放射性扩张的时空分异特征;(3)区域内Dagum基尼系数平均值呈“西北>南部沿海>西南>东北>东部沿海>黄河中游>北部沿海>长江中游”态势,区域间差异随时间推移正渐趋消弭;(4)市域经济发展质量水平向上等级跃迁的难度逐级增大,且“高高集聚、高带动低”的“俱乐部趋同”现象明显;(5)产业集聚、金融科技、城市等级、对外开放、与港口的距离是市域经济发展质量的主要驱动因子。

Using the method of vertical-horizontal classification method,this paper constructs a evaluation index system of economic development quality level at the municipal level,which is composed of 38 specific indicators.According to the methods of Dagum Gini coefficient,traditional Markov chain and spatial Markov chain,Geodetector,it analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution pattern and driving factors of economic development quality at the municipal level in China from 2000 to 2019.The results show that:1) From 2000 to 2019,the quality of economic development at the municipal level in China has continuously improved.The order of economic development quality level from high value to low value in the eight major economic regions is the eastern coastal region,the southern coastal region,the northern coastal region,the middle reaches of Yangtze River,the middle reaches of Yellow River,the northeastern region,the southwestern region and the northwestern region respectively.There is a significant spatial agglomeration of economic development quality at the municipal level in terms of spatial distribution.2) The economic development quality at the municipal level in China is characterized by a ladder pattern in the east of China and the west of China.The high-level cities show spatio-temporal differentiation which takes the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta and Shandong Peninsula urban agglomerations as the radioactive expansion centers.3) The order of average Dagum Gini coefficient from high value to low value in the eight major economic regions is the northwestern region,the southern coastal region,the southwestern region,the northeastern region,the eastern coastal region,the middle reaches of Yellow River,the northern coastal region and the middle reaches of Yangtze River.The spatio-temporal differentiation is gradually decreasing over time.4) The level of economic development quality at the municipal level in China is difficult to increase step by step,and the phenomenon of "club convergence" of "high gathering,high driving low" is obvious.5) Industrial agglomeration,fintech,city level,opening to the outside world,and distance from ports can significantly affect the quality of economic development at the municipal level in China.