基于资源与电价的分布式光伏项目经济性研究

Economic Evaluation of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Plants:Based on Regional Solar Resources and Electricity Prices

中国分布式光伏装机逐年攀升,项目收益持续向好,但由于太阳能资源禀赋分布不均衡、电价差异等因素影响,中国各省份分布式光伏收益水平高低不一,影响均衡发展。文章以中国不同省份、不同类型的分布式光伏为研究对象,建立通用经济性评价模型,对各省份分布式光伏进行收益及影响因素分析。结果表明:(1)中国太阳能资源分布严重不均匀,煤电价及一般工商业电价地区差异大;(2)多数省份分布式光伏能够达到收益要求,但是收益跨度大,省域间不均衡问题严重;(3)自用比例、发电小时数、租金是影响分布式光伏项目收益的重要因素。根据研究结果,建议从政策层面,仍有必要采取适当的激励措施,以均衡不同地区分布式光伏开发。

In China,the number of distributed photovoltaic power plants(PV plants) is increasing gradually,and the economic benefits continues to improve.However,due to the influence of unbalanced distribution of solar resources and different electricity prices,the economic benefits of distributed PV plants is inequality at regional level,which leads to unbalanced development.This paper takes different types of distributed PV plants in different regions of Chinan as the research objects,constructs a general economic evaluation model,and analyzes the economic benefits and influencing factors of distributed PV plants.The results show that:1) The distribution of solar resources in China is seriously uneven,and both coal-fired electricity prices and general industrial and commercial electricity prices varies greatly at regional level.2) In most regions of China,distributed PV plants can meet the revenue requirements,but the revenue span is large and the imbalance between regions is serious.3) Self-consumption ratio,generating hours and rent will affect the economic benefits of distributed PV plants to a great extent.It is suggested that there is a need for appropriate incentive/penalty measures at the policy level to balance distributed PV plants in different regions.