中国市域数字经济发展对减污降碳协同的促进效应及其空间分异

Promoting Effect of Digital Economy Development on the Coordination of Pollution and Carbon Reduction at the Municipal Level

数字经济正在成为经济社会发展的关键因素,减污降碳协同增效是经济社会发展绿色转型的总抓手。文章基于2013—2020年CO_(2)与四类典型大气污染物的排放强度数据,采用时空动态熵值法测度同期中国337个地级及以上市域数字经济发展(DED)水平,提出并运用贝叶斯时空因果森林模型,研究本地和空间邻接周边市域DED(周边WDED)对本地市域减污降碳协同效应(CPCR)的促进效应及其空间分异。结果表明:(1)中国市域DED和CPCR均呈增长趋势和“西低东高”的空间分布格局。(2)本地DED和周边WDED对本地CPCR的促进效应分别呈“对数函数”型和“S函数”型特征。(3)本地DED促进效应的空间分布符合以“胡焕庸线”为界的“西高东低”空间结构,周边WDED促进效应在西部区域和沿海地区较低,而高值区域主要分布在西南和北方地区。为促进减污降碳协同,需要在多个层面加强对数字经济的支持和优化,包括强化区域平衡、关注空间溢出效应、增强区域发达城市的辐射带动作用等。

Digital economy is becoming a key factor in the development of economic society,while pollution reduction and carbon reduction are important constraints for high-quality development.Based on the emission intensity data of CO2and four types of typical atmospheric pollutants,this study measures the promoting effect of coordination of pollution and carbon reduction(CPCR) at the municipal level in China from 2013 to 2020,and uses the spatiotemporal dynamic entropy method to measure the level of digital economic development(DED) of at the municipal level.It analyzes the promoting effect and its spatial heterogeneity of local DED and spatially adjacent peripheral DED(peripheral WDED) on local CPCR by the means of Bayesian spatiotemporal causal forest model.The conclusions show that:1) Both DED and CPCR show a growth trend,and their spatial patterns are both "lower in the west of China and higher in the east of China".2) The promoting effects of local DED and peripheral WDED on local CPCR show the characteristics of "logarithmic function" and "S function",respectively.3) The spatial distribution of the promoting effect of local DED conforms to the "Hu Huanyong Line" spatial structure,while the promoting effect of peripheral WDED show the distribution characteristics of 'lower in the western and coastal regions,and higher in the southwest and northern regions.To promote CPCR,it is necessary to strengthen support and optimization of the digital economy at multiple levels,including strengthening regional balance,paying attention to spatial spillover effects,and enhancing the regional radiation and driving effects of developed cities.