“一带一路”沿线国家土地资源承载力的时空格局——基于营养需求分析

Spatio-temporal patterns of the land carrying capacity in the Belt and Road region based on nutritional requirement

“一带一路”沿线国家是全球主要的人口集聚区和食物生产区,从热量、蛋白质和脂肪营养当量视角开展土地资源承载力研究,可为沿线地区改善食物供给状况提供参考。基于营养素转换模型和土地资源承载力模型,从全域到国别研究了沿线国家土地资源承载力的时空格局。结果表明:1995—2019年期间,(1)沿线国家蔬果和蛋奶类食物增幅超过或接近1倍,3种营养素供给量增幅均超过50%,但动物性食物蛋白质供给比例与发达国家仍有一定差距;(2)土地资源承载力增至50亿~60亿人区间水平,约80%国家土地资源承载力在提高,主要集中于东南亚、南亚地区,而中东欧部分国家可载人口有所下降;(3)沿线国家土地资源整体上转入盈余状态,约60%国家土地资源承载指数下降,50%国家人口超载,超过50%的国家热量和蛋白质供应不足。

Countries along the Belt and Road(B&R)are the major population agglomeration areas and food production areas in the world.It is of great significance to study land resource carrying capacity from the perspectives of energy,protein and fat nutrition equivalence for pro‐moting the improvement of regional dietary nutrition.Based on nutrient transformation model and land resources carrying capacity model,the spatial-temporal pattern of land resources carry‐ing capacity of countries along the B&R from 1995 to 2019 was studied from the whole region and national scale.The results showed that,during the study period:(1)The growth rate of fruits,vegetables and egg milk food in B&R is more than or close to one time,and the growth rate of all three kinds of nutrients supply quantity is more than 50%,but there is still a certain gap between the supply ratio of animal food in protein and that in developed countries.(2)The carrying capacity of land resources has increased to the level of 5~6 billion people in B&R.The carrying capacity of 80%of countries was increasing,mainly located in Southeast Asia and South Asia.The carrying capacity of land resources of some countries in Central and Eastern Eu‐rope has declined.(3)Land resource carrying capacity pressure in B&R have turned into surplus overall,with about 60%countries slowing down,50%countries overloaded with population,and over 50%countries lack of energy and protein.