基于N-K模型和尖点突变的公交车交通事故风险分析

Risk analysis of bus traffic accidents based on N-K model and cusp mutation

为了探究公交车交通事故中的风险耦合关系,从单因素、双因素和多因素的角度分析了公交车交通事故风险耦合关系,并建立了公交车交通事故风险耦合层次网络模型。基于N-K模型,构建了公交车交通事故双因素和多因素风险耦合度量模型,以国内发生的664起公交车交通事故为例,得到了不同风险因素耦合发生概率和风险耦合度值,建立了公交车交通事故尖点突变模型,最后通过仿真,使公交车交通安全系统风险状态可视化。结果表明:参与风险耦合的因素数量越多,发生公交车交通事故的风险越大;人的因素和道路因素具有较强的耦合性,在风险耦合过程中造成的风险最大,是影响公交车交通安全的关键因素。

In order to explore the risk coupling relationship in bus traffic accidents,this study analyzed the risk coupling relationship in bus traffic accidents from the perspectives of single-factor,two-factor and multi-factor,and the risk coupling hierarchical network model of bus traffic accidents was established.Based on the N-K model,the two-factor and multi-factor risk coupling metric model of bus traffic accidents was constructed,the occurence probability of different risk factor coupling and the value of risk coupling degree were obtained by taking 664 bus traffic accidents in China as examples and the bus traffic accident cusp mutation model was established.Finally,the risk state of bus traffic safety system was visualized through simulation.The results show that the greater the number of factors involved in risk coupling is,the greater the risk of bus traffic accidents is;human factors and road factors have strong coupling and cause the greatest risk in the risk coupling process,and therefore are the key factors affecting bus traffic safety.