基于切片采样-马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟的高比例新能源电力系统等效惯量概率评估

S-MCMC Based Equivalent Inertia Probability Evaluation for Power Systems With High Proportional Renewable Energy

风电、光伏新能源发电功率的不确定性给高比例新能源电力系统的等效惯量评估带来了新的挑战。基于确定性的惯量评估方法不能有效反映全分析时段高比例新能源电力系统惯量的时序变化态势。为了评估新能源波动所引起的系统惯量不确定性,该文提出了一种基于切片采样–马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟(slice sample Markov chain Monte Carlo,S-MCMC)的系统等效惯量概率评估方法。首先,对高比例新能源电力系统惯量组成及特性进行了分析,并对同步旋转设备的有效机械惯量、风电光伏电源的有效虚拟惯量进行量化计算。然后,基于Copula函数建立风速和光照强度之间的相关性模型,利用S-MCMC对系统等效惯量进行概率评估,从而得到系统等效惯量时序变化区间。最后,以改进的IEEE 39节点系统进行仿真分析,验证了所提出方法及分析结果的有效性。

The uncertainties of wind and photovoltaic power generations has brought about new challenges for the equivalent inertia evaluation of power systems with high proportional renewable energy.Generally,the inertia evaluation methods under deterministic scenarios cannot effectively reflect the trend of time series changes of the power system inertia.In order to evaluate the uncertainty of the system inertia caused by the renewable energy fluctuation,this paper proposes a new method for equivalent inertia probability evaluation based on the Slice Sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo(S-MCMC).Firstly,the inertia composition and characteristics of power systems with high proportional renewable energy are analyzed,and the effective mechanical inertia provided by the synchronous rotating equipment and the effective virtual inertia provided by the wind power and photovoltaic power are quantitatively calculated respectively.Secondly,the correlation model between the wind speed and light intensity is established based on the Copula function,and the probability evaluation of the system equivalent inertia is carried out through the S-MCMC,so as to obtain the time series variation interval of the system equivalent inertia.Finally,simulation analysis is conducted on the modified IEEE 39 bus system to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method and analysis results.