上海市闵行区低剂量螺旋CT肺癌筛查效果评估

Effectiveness Evaluation of Low-dose Spiral Computed Tomography for Lung Cancer Screening in Minhang District of Shanghai

背景与目的低剂量螺旋计算机断层扫描(low-dose spiral computed tomography,LDCT)已被推荐应用于高危人群的肺癌筛查。我国LDCT筛查研究少,随访时间较短,且高危人群的定义不同。本研究基于上海市闵行区肺癌筛查项目,评估LDCT应用于我国人群肺癌筛查的中长期效果。方法上海市闵行区肺癌筛查项目于2013至2017年实施,共纳入26,124名40岁及以上合格参与者,并以同期闵行区全体适龄人群为对照。通过筛查登记系统及与上海市肿瘤登记和死因登记系统链接,获得所有对象至2020年12月31日的肺癌发病及全死因死亡信息。计算筛查人群相比于全人群对照的肺癌标准化发病率比(standardized incidence ratio,SIR)及95%CI,比较筛查人群与非筛查人群中肺癌病例的早期率(0-Ⅰ期)、病理类型及5年观察生存率,分析LDCT筛查与肺癌病例全死因死亡的风险比(hazard ratio,HR)及95%CI。结果筛查人群的肺癌粗发病率为373.3/10万人年(95%CI:343.1-406.1),标化发病率为70.3/10万人年,相比于总人群的SIR为1.8(95%CI:1.6-1.9),且在随访期内随时间推移而下降。筛查组病例中早期肺癌占比49.4%,显著高于同期非筛查病例中的38.4%(P<0.05);肺腺癌占比40.7%,显著高于非筛查病例中的35.9%(P<0.05);5年观察生存率为53.7%,亦显著高于非筛查病例的41.5%(P<0.05)。与同期非筛查病例相比,筛查组病例的全因死亡风险下降30%(HR=0.7,95%CI:0.6-0.8)。结论本次纳入的筛检人群肺癌发病风险较高;LDCT筛查有利于肺癌的早期检出,提高生存率,在降低人群的肺癌疾病负担方面具有一定潜力。

Background and objective Low-dose spiral computed tomography(LDCT)has been recommended for lung cancer screening in high-risk populations.However,evidence from Chinese populations was limited due to the different criteria for high-risk populations and the short-term follow-up period.This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness in Chinese adults based on the Lung Cancer Screening Program in Minhang District of Shanghai initiated in 2013.Methods A total of 26,124 subjects aged 40 years or above were enrolled in the Lung Cancer Screening Program during the period of 2013 and 2017.Results of LDCT examination,and screen-detected cancer cases in all participants were obtained from the Reporting System of the Lung Cancer Screening Program.The newly-diagnosed cases and their vital status up to December 31,2020 were identified through a record linkage with the Shanghai Cancer Registry and the Shanghai Vital Statistics.Standardized incidence ratio(SIR)and 95%CI were calculated using the local population at ages of 40 or above as the reference.Proportions of early-stage cancer(stage 0-I),pathological types,and 5-year observed survival rates of lung cancer cases were estimated and compared between the cases derived from the screened and non-screened populations.Cox regression models were applied to evaluate the hazard ratio(HR)and 95%CI of LDCT screening with all-cause death of the lung cancer cases.Results The crude and age-standardized incidence of lung cancer in screened population were 373.3(95%CI:343.1-406.1)and 70.3 per 100,000 person-years,respectively,with an SIR of 1.8(95%CI:1.6-1.9),which was observed to decrease with following-up time.The early-stage cancer accounted for 49.4%of all lung cancer cases derived from the screened population,significantly higher than 38.4%in cases from the non-screened population during the same period(P<0.05).The proportion of lung adenocarcinoma(40.7%vs 35.9%)and 5-year survival rate(53.7%vs 41.5%)were also significantly higher in the cases from the screened population(all P<0.05).LDCT screening was associated with 30%(HR=0.7,95%CI:0.6-0.8)reduced all-cause deaths of the cases.Conclusion The participants of the screening program are at high-risk of lung cancer.LDCT favors the early-detection of lung cancer and improves 5-year survival of the screened cases,indicating a great potential of LDCT in reducing the disease burden of lung cancer in Chinese populations.