海南省农业领域碳排放时空分布与预测

Spatio-temporal distribution and prediction of agricultural carbon emissions in Hainan Province

为探究海南省碳排放的时空分布特征,以海南省农业领域碳排放情况为研究对象,基于2016—2020年海南省农业年鉴数据,从种植业、养殖业、渔业和农用能源等4个方面入手,采用IPCC碳排放计算方法,分别计算全省与各市县农业年碳排放总量和碳排放强度。结果表明:海南省农业领域碳排放总量历年变化幅度较小,2018年海南省农业领域碳排放总量(以碳当量计)达到最大为495.69万t,种植业和农用能源碳排放所占比例最大,分别为61.62%和31.29%;海岛特点导致海南省农业领域碳排放总量在地域上存在明显差异,海口、文昌、琼海、澄迈、临高、儋州地区等沿海县区农业领域碳排放量远大于岛中央地区,呈现北高南低、外高内低的特点;海南省及各市县区农业领域碳排放强度逐年下降,2020年全省农业领域碳排放强度(以碳质量计)降低至0.26 kg/亿元,降低速度超过全国平均水平。在目前农业发展场景下,海南省已基本实现农业领域碳达峰,碳排放总量与碳排放强度虽处于高位,但在未来几年内仍会不断下降。

To explore the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emission in Hainan Province,based on the agricultural data from 2016 to 2020,the annual total agricultural carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of Hainan Province were calculated by IPCC carbon emission calculation and prevention from four aspects,which were planting industry,aquaculture industry,fishery industry and agricultural energy.The results showed that:The total carbon emissions from the agricultural sector in Hainan Province had a small change over the years.In 2018,the total agricultural carbon emissions in Hainan Province reached the maximum of 4956900 tons of carbon equivalent,and the carbon emissions from the planting industry and agricultural energy accounted for the largest proportion,61.62%and 31.29%,respectively.The characteristics of island lead to significant regional differences in total agricultural carbon emissions.The agricultural carbon emissions are much higher in the north and lower in the south,higher in the outside and lower in the inside.The agricultural carbon emission intensity of Hainan Province has been decreasing year by year.In 2020,the agricultural carbon emission intensity of the province has been reduced to 0.26 kg(in carbon equivalent)per 100 million yuan,which is faster than the national average.Under the current agricultural development scenario,Hainan Province has basically achieved the peak of carbon in the agricultural sector,and although the total carbon emission and carbon emission intensity are at a high level,they will continue to decline in the next few years.