“创造性毁灭”:农机装备升级引发的维修服务体系重构

“Creative destruction”:The reconstruction of maintenance service system incurred by upgrading of agricultural equipment

为探寻统计上中国农机维修服务能力随农机保有量增长而“反向衰退”的原因,借助经济学“创造性毁灭”概念,构建理论解释框架,并利用2004—2020年主要粮食生产省份面板数据开展实证检验。结果表明:1)2004年以来,中国农机装备制造科技水平实现质的飞跃,农机装备从小型低端农机向大型高端农机转型升级,驱动维修服务体系开启从传统向现代的转型重构;2)农机装备升级通过需求替代效应和技术门槛效应推动服务于小型低端农机的传统维修点大量退出,传统维修服务体系因而走向瓦解;3)面向大型高端农机的现代维修服务体系开始形成,农机制造企业、农机经销商、社会维修网点、农机专业合作社成为该体系的核心力量,但现代维修服务体系面临维修服务需求季节性强、农机用户对维修及时性要求高、维修点运营成本倍增等挑战,且部分新生维修点可能未被及时纳入统计范畴;4)表征农机装备升级程度的大中型拖拉机动力占比对统计上的维修点密度具有显著的负向影响,且大中型拖拉机动力占比提高对维修点密度下降的贡献率达52.85%。最后,从制度、政策和技术3个层面提出完善现代维修服务体系和保障农忙季节大型高端农机及时检修的政策建议。

To explore the reasons for the statistical“reverse decline”of agricultural machinery maintenance service capacity with the increase of agricultural machinery inventory in China,this study uses the economic concept of“creative destruction”to build a theoretical explanation framework,and conducts an empirical test based on the panel data of major grain producing provinces from 2004 to 2020.The results show that:1)Due to the leap of agricultural machinery manufacturing technology,China’s agricultural machinery equipment has been transforming from small-scale low-end machinery to large-scale high-end machinery since 2004,which initiated the transformation and reconstruction of maintenance service system from traditional to modern.2)Upgrading of agricultural equipment has driven a large number of traditional maintenance points serving small and low-end agricultural machinery to withdraw through demand substitution effects and technology threshold effects,leading to the disintegration of the traditional maintenance service system.3)The modern maintenance service system for large-scale high-end agricultural machinery has begun to take shape,with the agricultural machinery manufacturing enterprises,agricultural machinery distributors,social maintenance outlets,and agricultural machinery professional cooperatives becoming the core forces of the system.However,the modern maintenance service system faces challenges such as strong seasonal variations in demand for maintenance services,high requirements for timely maintenance by agricultural machinery users,and increasing operating costs for maintenance points and some of the new maintenance points may not be included in the statistical scope timely.4)The percentage of large and medium-sized tractor power has a significant negative impact on the statistical density of agricultural machinery maintenance points,and the increase of percentage of large and medium-sized tractor power contributes 52.85%to the decrease in the density of agricultural machinery maintenance points.Finally,policy recommendations are proposed in this study to improve the modern maintenance service system and ensuring timely maintenance of large-scale high-end agricultural machinery during busy farming season from institutional,policy,and technical perspectives.