新形势下中亚粮食安全问题:现状、成因与路径选择

Food security in Central Asia under the new situation:Current situation,causes and path selection

为探索2020年以来的粮食安全危机问题,基于新冠疫情暴发后全球粮食市场的价格指数和供需情况,以中亚地区粮食安全问题为案例进行研究。结果表明:中亚地区虽未出现饥饿威胁,但社会经济动荡的风险仍相当明显,粮食安全形势依然严峻,尤其在西方持续拱火俄乌局势的背景下,极端天气、粮食出口限制和能源危机等进一步恶化中亚粮食不安全状况。当前中亚粮食安全问题的产生除国际环境外,还受到自然生态条件、农业经济政策、人口问题等因素叠加影响。为从根本上解决粮食安全问题,中亚国家应制定可持续发展的粮食安全战略,在提升粮食供给保障水平的同时,借助上合组织和欧亚经济联盟等实现深度合作以增强粮食储备能力,构建更具韧性的中亚粮食安全治理体系。

To explore the food security crisis since 2020,this study takes the food security issues in Central Asia as study case based on the price indices and supply and demand in the global food market since the outbreak of the COVID-19.The results show that:Although there is no threat of hunger in Central Asia,the risk of socio-economic turmoil is still quite obvious and the food security situation remains critical.Especially,under the background of the West’s continued vitriol over the Russia-Ukraine situation,extreme weather,food export restrictions and the energy crisis,all of the above have further worsened the food insecurity in Central Asia.In addition to the international environment,the current food security problem in Central Asia is also influenced by a combination of natural and ecological conditions,agricultural economic policies,demographic problems and other factors.In order to tackle the root causes of food security,the Central Asian countries should develop a sustainable food security strategy,enhance the level of food supply security,and at the same time,achieve in-depth cooperation with the SCO and the Eurasian Economic Union to enhance food reserves and build a more resilient food security governance system in Central Asia.