我国部分针叶原木进口价格趋势与解析

Analysis on the Import Price Trend of Some Coniferous Logs in China

通过月度进口均价分析不同树种之间价格引导关系。通过格兰杰因果关系检验发现,短期内,花旗松和樟子松价格变化都能作为预测辐射松价格变化的参考因素,辐射松价格变化能作为预测花旗松价格变化的参考因素。长期来看,花旗松价格变化能作为预测辐射松价格变化的参考因素,辐射松价格变化能作为预测花旗松价格变化的参考因素。

At present,China's high-quality conifer logs mainly rely on imports.In this paper,the price guidance relationship between different tree species by analyzing the monthly average import price was analyzed.Through the Granger test,it was found that in the short term,both the changes in the price of Citi/Hemlock and the changes in the price of Pinus sylvestris can be used as the reference factors to predict the changes in the price of Pinus radiata,and the changes in the price of Pinus radiata can be used as the reference factors to predict the changes in the price of Citi/Hemlock.In the long run,it can be considered that the price change of Citigroup/Hemlock can be used as a reference factor to predict the price change of Pinus radiata,and the price change of Pinus radiata can be used as a reference factor to predict the price change of Citigroup/Hemlock.