谭家河滑坡监测与精细化预警模型研究

Research on monitoring and refined early warning model of Tanjiahe landslide

为研究谭家河滑坡的变形阈值,通过综合分析降雨、库水位和GNSS自动监测等数据,针对谭家河滑坡实际情况,建立了谭家河滑坡的5级递进式分级预警模型。研究结果显示:①滑坡高水位位移变化小,低水位位移变化大;②谭家河滑坡位移速率与库水位速率相关,库水位下降、位移增加,库水位上升、位移减小;③在库水位160 m以下、库水位速率阈值为0.6 m/d、位移速率阈值为0.5 mm/d条件下,滑坡形成“阶跃”;④在库水位下降期间以及低库水位运行期,累计降雨量大于175 mm会对滑坡的变形产生影响,也可形成“阶跃”。

To study the deformation threshold of Tanjiahe landslide,through the comprehensive analysis of rainfall,reservoir water level and GNSS automatic monitoring data,according to the actual situation of Tanjiahe Landslide,a five-level progressive grading early warning model of Tanjiahe landslide was established.The results showed that:①The displacement of high water level of landslide changed less,and the displacement of low water level changed greatly.②The displacement rate of Tanjiahe landslide was related to the rate of reservoir water level.The displacement increased with the decreased of reservoir water level.The displacement decreased with the increased of reservoir water level.③When the reservoir water level was below 160 metres,the reservoir water level threshold was 0.6 m/d,and the displacement rate threshold was 0.5 mm/d,the slope formed a step jump.④During the decline of reservoir water level and the operation period of low reservoir water level,the cumulative rainfall greater than 175 mm could affect the deformation of the landslide,and it could also form a step jump.